COVID 19 Facts and Science

Fish To Escape wrote:

A bit of friendly advice on looking at the data: the 7 day moving average will tell you more than each individual day. Stats are not my strongest suit so if someone wants to correct me on that feel free.

I’m not a statistician, actuary or epidemiologist, but I do have extensive training and experience in stats from college and professionally, and I don’t think there’s any set rules. It depends a lot on what you are looking for, as well as, in this case, the duration from infection to death. So a week or 2 weeks even, might be a little short on the time frame for Covid, but it’s all relative and the important piece is the trend. Outside of FL and TX the trend is good, AZ *should* start trending negatively based off what we’ve experienced up until now, but the recent case spikes haven’t correlated to a death spike in every case so who knows. I just take the trends for what they are, and stay focused on the hard data, as media (on either side) will spin the data to their preference. And I’m probably guilty of that too.

Fair enough, sounds reasonable to me

Fish To Escape wrote:

A bit of friendly advice on looking at the data: the 7 day moving average will tell you more than each individual day. Stats are not my strongest suit so if someone wants to correct me on that feel free.

A couple of days ago I watched some congressional testimony that I thought was extremely poignant. This doctor was talking about how, for many people, this is their first frontal experience with how science works. They are getting to see the messy early stages of the scientific process. Lots of trial and error, educated guesses that turn out to be wrong etc. This is how science always works and it is actually going really well in terms of the progress scientifically. Unfortunately, too many people are taking the word of experts that are very far from the middle, one way or the other, and that is leading to distrust everywhere. Just found it to be an interesting point

Very understated point. One of the first things you learn in pharmacy school when dealing with the public and their complaints. (usually on insurance coverage and drug information) Always try to tell yourself that they are not mad at you (even though they just called you a MFer), they just don’t understand. Can you help them to understand?

hard to put into practice! especially when academia doesn’t tell you that many don’t WANT to listen or are UNWILLING to even try.

To Expand on Suzuki and Justin’s point.

The media only highlightsthe bad part of the story. For example, hospitalizations, ICU beds and deaths have been steadily decreasing in MN for several weeks AND the cases are maintaining at a flat level. The common,daily, Startribune headline is “COVID 19 cases continue to rise.” Causes the public to stir. Causes the public to worry. Then a politician uses that fear to influence his decisions. AKA, keep kids out of school or a complex hybrid is imposed on all districts when Worthington, St. Peter, Warroad, EP, Minn North all are clearly not on equal situations.

criminal??? probably not. Striking fear in a public that can’t or are willing to figure out whether or not to get a FLU shot in the fall. without a FING!!!! doubt!

b-curtis wrote:

.I don’t see how AZ would be decreasing?

The easiest way would be to move the data that I linked to a line graph and it will show deaths peaked (so far, it can still change) on June 25th with 42 with a downward trend since then. Some other simple ways to look at it: The 3 lowest death totals for the last month in AZ have come July 5th, 7th and 9th. The average per day over the last 10 days is 24, the average over the 10 days prior to that is 29.9. If you do the same thing but over 7 days it lowers it to 22.14/day over the last week vs 31/day over the 7 days prior to that.

b-curtis – I very much appreciate your level and thought provoking posts and reply’s. thank you.

BigWerm – I don’t think we can state TX and FL are outliers. There stats will have a story to tell. I am with b-curtis that we will need to wait to draw too many conclusions. But I am with you that something different is happening. i am with you that the media is trash and their headlines lead the public to division and unrealistic fears.

joe-winter wrote:

I don’t think we can state TX and FL are outliers.

Yeah, I just meant in the context of the national death #’s are decreasing, while their’s are increasing drastically.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
.I don’t see how AZ would be decreasing?

The easiest way would be to move the data that I linked to a line graph and it will show deaths peaked (so far, it can still change) on June 25th with 42 with a downward trend since then. Some other simple ways to look at it: The 3 lowest death totals for the last month in AZ have come July 5th, 7th and 9th. The average per day over the last 10 days is 24, the average over the 10 days prior to that is 29.9. If you do the same thing but over 7 days it lowers it to 22.14/day over the last week vs 31/day over the 7 days prior to that.

I can pretty well visualize the ‘line’ just looking at the bar graph. No I didn’t do the math. They had 44 yesterday, which is the highest number. So yes one day total is the highest. Maybe we should check back in 7 more days and see if the 44 is an outlier, or trend.

b-curtis wrote:

They had 44 yesterday, which is the highest number.

Gotcha, that’s my bad then, I was operating off of the data in the bar graph here which doesn’t have yesterday’s jump in it yet:
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/

joe-winter wrote:

To Expand on Suzuki and Justin’s point.

The media only highlightsthe bad part of the story. For example, hospitalizations, ICU beds and deaths have been steadily decreasing in MN for several weeks AND the cases are maintaining at a flat level. The common,daily, Startribune headline is “COVID 19 cases continue to rise.” Causes the public to stir. Causes the public to worry. Then a politician uses that fear to influence his decisions. AKA, keep kids out of school or a complex hybrid is imposed on all districts when Worthington, St. Peter, Warroad, EP, Minn North all are clearly not on equal situations.

criminal??? probably not. Striking fear in a public that can’t or are willing to figure out whether or not to get a FLU shot in the fall. without a FING!!!! doubt!

Yeah I suppose that is true, but I would also say it shouldn’t be reported on just to comfort people…that would be like state run media hiding relevant information from the people. I also don’t think it is a ‘bigger problem’ than the virus itself.

You could also argue that other politicians are their own media and provide less than accurate information, which is that any better? I’m not sure if that is to influence an agenda/decisions or to help keep Americans calm.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
They had 44 yesterday, which is the highest number.

Gotcha, that’s my bad then, I was operating off of the data in the bar graph here which doesn’t have yesterday’s jump in it:
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/

Well as it was pointed out daily shouldn’t really be looked at. Looks like it was 3 yesterday which would be one of the lowest days. So I will be curious to see what it looks like in a week.

@AnglerII
Going back to the discussion about deaths not surging in spite of rising cases.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/covid-19-keeps-surging-governors-ponder-next-steps

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to surge in at least 30 states, with 6 states (Alabama, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Oregon, and Texas) hitting single-day case records yesterday, according to a database maintained by the New York Times.

The Times also reports that daily death tolls are trending upward. While still only a fraction of what was seen in late April, when more than 2,000 deaths were reported each day as the virus swept through New York and the surrounding tristate area, the 7-day average is now 608, up from 471 at the beginning of the month.

Yeah the NYT page they reference does a good job breaking down what is happening in each state.

Not sure if this fits this thread but there are some facts in it. I watched a show called The NYT presents “They Get Brave” on FX and would recommend it for anybody who wants to see what happened in NYC.

The first documentary, “They Get Brave,” follows the coronavirus crisis in New York City. The Times gave doctors and nurses cameras to document their lives at the height of the pandemic, and what they captured reveals an extraordinary resolve in the face of a profound breakdown in the health-care system. Like WWI infantry, they were poorly equipped and relied on shoddy information, but they committed themselves to the cause.

They Get Brave

Probably staged like reality tv. /s

belletaine wrote:

https://www.twincities.com/2020/04/14/larry-windrum-former-owner-of-missouri-mouse-antiques-in-st-paul-died-of-coronavirus/

That’s a nice obit. Thanks for sharing. I’m sorry for your loss. One of the worst aspects of this crisis was witnessing people decline and die in the Covid surge units with only the nursing staff there to witness and try to provide comfort. They did the best they could and frequently utilized phone calls or the iPads for FaceTime, but it’s no substitute for family.

Here’s a Question/Scenario there probably is no answer for…. But something to chew on.

So how’s it going to work going forward with where the line is drawn on when to quarantine yourself/family when someone shows symptoms of an illness..? From what I understand, the general requirements are if you show any symptoms or have been in contact with a confirmed case of COVID, you need to isolate yourself for 2 weeks, or hope you qualify for a test and get tested (3-5 day turn-around-time). Symptoms of COVID now are basically anything and everything. The one and only outlying symptom different from everything else out there is some people may lose their sense of taste and smell.

Here’s the conundrum…

I have 3 little kids, the oldest is supposed to start Kindergarten this fall (not too hopeful on that). They are all currently back at their daycare center (2-3 days/week) starting last week (mom works 3 days/week). After their first day back, the 2 younger ones developed a sneeze and a runny nose, and by the weekend the oldest had one morning/afternoon where she felt a little crummy and had a low grade fever of no greater than 100.2 (but that was with a ear thermometer, with questionable accuracy. We got most consistent readings in the 99.5’ish range). But by the evening she was fine and has not had a fever since and has felt fine. My wife’s cousin, who sends her kids to the same facility also had a bug the week prior and was tested and was negative, but she had a fever for a few days, so we figured it was the same bug my kid got. Should we have got her tested? Should we currently be isolated for 2 weeks?

What does one do in this scenario? I guarantee many of mild colds and bugs will be picked up and brought home this fall and winter at daycare. Do we have to isolate every time there is so much as a sniffle and sneeze and/or low grade fever? What is the standard to follow to keep them home? Seems that 100.4 or greater is something I have read, but with everything being a symptom, where is the line drawn between moving on with life or isolating for 2 weeks?

Trying to navigate this pandemic this fall/winter will be next to impossible. If there is no school, many families will have to have a parent quit their jobs to stay home with kids. And then the lone bread winner will be at constant risk of missing many days of work due to “possible” COVID exposure if every symptom under the sun could be COVID and you have to isolate for 2 weeks or wait on a test result.

The only way I can see this being close to functional is if the testing capacity reaches a point where there can be a 24hr turn-around-time and I doubt that will happen. As it is now, I feel like my family will have to test a few times a week if we want to keep kids in daycare and remain employed.

DeRangedFishinguy wrote:

What does one do in this scenario? I guarantee many of mild colds and bugs will be picked up and brought home this fall and winter at daycare. Do we have to isolate every time there is so much as a sniffle and sneeze and/or low grade fever? What is the standard to follow to keep them home? Seems that 100.4 or greater is something I have read, but with everything being a symptom, where is the line drawn between moving on with life or isolating for 2 weeks?

Excellent and valid questions for sure. You’ll have to get the policy from your daycare provider and then from school when and if that happens. It should be pretty thorough explaining the scenarios. The one I read isn’t real simple to follow, for good reason. They want to make sure they aren’t just making people quarantine for no good reason.

I too have my oldest starting kindergarten this fall but I am hopeful that it will happen. As long as community spread stays low, schools should be able to open, in my opinion.

I guess we all need to remember that we are indeed in a real pandemic so things won’t always be clear, fair or easy. We just need to move forward with the understanding that we are essentially learning as we go and that hopefully we adjust accordingly.

BigWerm wrote:

Yeah Texas and Florida are outliers currently, but nationally, locally, and even in a hotspot like AZ the death toll is decreasing.

Texas:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Florida (yesterday was a big drop off from prior trends idk why):
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Arizona:
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/

US:
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+covid+deaths&oq=us+covid+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57.2335j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

b-curtis wrote:

I guess I look at data differently..I don’t see how AZ would be decreasing?

Looks like there was big spike last week, but #’s locally, nationally and even in hotspot states (TX, FL and AZ) seem to all be trending down. (Also, the supposed 44 deaths on 7/8 or 7/9 never showed up in the AZ deaths graph)

I spoke to two different people who work in the infectious disease field and asked them what they are hearing on when a fairly reliable vaccine will be available for covid. Both said they hope to have some in a testing Phase by Late Nov. or early Dec. but they probably wont have anything available to the mass population until next March or April at the earliest. They also said at this time they have no idea of how effective a vaccine is even going to be.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
Yeah Texas and Florida are outliers currently, but nationally, locally, and even in a hotspot like AZ the death toll is decreasing.

Texas:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Florida (yesterday was a big drop off from prior trends idk why):
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Arizona:
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/

US:
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+covid+deaths&oq=us+covid+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57.2335j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
I guess I look at data differently..I don’t see how AZ would be decreasing?

Looks like there was big spike last week, but #’s locally, nationally and even in hotspot states (TX, FL and AZ) seem to all be trending down. (Also, the supposed 44 deaths on 7/8 or 7/9 never showed up in the AZ deaths graph)

Yeah, that is another lesson learned when looking at data…read. I too was wondering where the 44 went and there is note right at the top “Deaths are shown on the bar chart of the COVID-19 deaths section of the dashboard using the date of death, not the day reported. New deaths on the summary section of the dashboard are displayed by the day reported to ADHS.”

So there was 44 reported on 7/9 but the deaths in the bar chart are the date of death. There is a lag in the bar chart. For example for 7/8 there was 3 as of Friday. There are now 22.

There’s also a 1-2 week lag between an actual death and the date it gets reported. So a spike in cases today may not show up for 5+ weeks. With the 5 day moving average trending upward now, we’re looking a a constant upswing for at least the next 5+ weeks.

Has there been any notable decreases in Minneapolis or St. Paul? Seems to me they have the highest positive cases in the state and were the first to impose mask restrictions. Hospital and ICU looks to be maintaining lower numbers according to MDH.

beardly wrote:

Has there been any notable decreases in Minneapolis or St. Paul? Seems to me they have the highest positive cases in the state and were the first to impose mask restrictions. Hospital and ICU looks to be maintaining lower numbers according to MDH.

Good question. I’m not aware of anyone keeping daily statistics at a city or county level. Would be nice to see if there are any.

Hard to tell with the color schemes but looks like both Hennepin and Ramsey are on the ‘low end’ of rising per the NYT.

MN

beardly wrote:

Has there been any notable decreases in Minneapolis or St. Paul?

Most areas of concern in MN are tied to meat packing plants. Lately there has been a spike in some other places because a bunch of young bar loving idiots ventured out and got together. Those places were in Mpls, St Paul, Mankato, St Cloud, and Rochester.

Generally, the denser the population, the more likely there are to be cases but if you look at it based on cases per capita, the counties with meat packing plants are much higher than urban areas.

Who you guys calling outliers?

Deranged:
That is an excellent question that, unfortunately, doesn’t have a great answer right now. We have run into the same issues and decisions with our kids this summer. My advice would be to have adults follow guidelines re: social distancing etc and then just follow the fever guidelines for your childcare provider. The reality of being tested is that you could be exposed on the way home from getting the test, test reads negative, but you start spreading it around over the next few days anyway.

There is a lot of optimism right now that a saliva test using a different form of cheaper, faster technology could help with a lot of the testing delays. I have not looked into the specificity/sensitivity yet but I know they have started using them a bit in direct to consumer form.

I have not seen any real in depth breakdowns of local numbers such as percent positive etc. I know that a big goal of MDH in the long term was to be able to look at the whole thing more regionally to focus resources where needed and minimize any disruptions.

Some random thoughts.

Thinking about the longer term affects of this and am sort of worried about other epidemics being triggered by declining vaccinations. Polio, measles, etc… We’ve seen measles increasing in recent years due to unvaccinated children typically triggered by imported cases. Polio is popping up in several places now.

The antivaxx movement has gained some steam and it really baffles me why. I’ve always trusted the required children’s vaccines but I’ve been skeptical of the flu vaccine due to the way the effectiveness is reported in the media each year. 30-40% effectiveness sounds ineffective but a lot of the experts I’ve grown to trust have maintained that they are still very effective. I’ve sort of flipped my opinion on flu vaccines and will be getting one this year when it’s available. Ironically, what really turned my opinion is when I heard Dr. Osterholm lecture about it and said that they are nowhere near as effective as they should be. There’s just no incentive for any pharmaceutical company to develop anything more effective. He said that there shouldn’t be any problem to develop one to cover nearly all seasonal flu strains and last for at least 2 years, if not lifetime and be closer to 80-90% effective. He said it’s possible but there is no incentive to do so.

Anyway, just thinking about some of the possible fallout from all of this.

biggill wrote:

Some random thoughts.

Thinking about the longer term affects of this and am sort of worried about other epidemics being triggered by declining vaccinations. Polio, measles, etc… We’ve seen measles increasing in recent years due to unvaccinated children typically triggered by imported cases. Polio is popping up in several places now.

The antivaxx movement has gained some steam and it really baffles me why. I’ve always trusted the required children’s vaccines but I’ve been skeptical of the flu vaccine due to the way the effectiveness is reported in the media each year. 30-40% effectiveness sounds ineffective but a lot of the experts I’ve grown to trust have maintained that they are still very effective. I’ve sort of flipped my opinion on flu vaccines and will be getting one this year when it’s available. Ironically, what really turned my opinion is when I heard Dr. Osterholm lecture about it and said that they are nowhere near as effective as they should be. There’s just no incentive for any pharmaceutical company to develop anything more effective. He said that there shouldn’t be any problem to develop one to cover nearly all seasonal flu strains and last for at least 2 years, if not lifetime and be closer to 80-90% effective. He said it’s possible but there is no incentive to do so.

Anyway, just thinking about some of the possible fallout from all of this.

I agree wholeheartedly about Antivaxxers, it’s craziness that rivals flat earthers in my opinion, particularly for early childhood vaccinations. There’s a reason all those diseases you listed are (or were) basically eradicated. As for Dr. Osterholm and the Flu vaccine, that doesn’t make a lot of sense. First of all there is a huge market for flu vaccines, and it’s a yearly (or every couple years as you point out) purchase. Additionally a ton of the medical research in the US, where about 40% of the worlds medical innovation comes from, is done my college’s and universities where the profit motive should be at least partially removed.