Matt, can you give a quick summary as to how he squashed that theory, or to what his explanation was?
I haven’t finished it yet but he basically said that there are numerous locations where cases are rising rapidly where people wouldn’t be cooped up indoors due to hot weather.
Unless you learn from us, you will have a spike, mostly from younger people, when bars start opening up.
My theory is when it first started happening young folks were terrified. But when you open up, they start getting overly laxed. Our infections are way up, but deaths are on the decline and the average age of those infected is going way south.
The delay between action and seeing the results in the numbers is much longer than people were thinking. Everybody was ready to say Florida was fine 2 weeks after they opened. The states seeing large spikes seem to be a result of opening up fully and too many people not taking measures to avoid being infected. It will be interesting to see what happens in California and Washington assuming they enforce their mask rule
BTW, I am getting the anti body test tomorrow with the wife. I’d be lying if I said I don’t care if it is negative.
Yes, a lot of the “experts” that I trust were picking that study apart within hours of it coming out
BTW, I am getting the anti body test tomorrow with the wife. I’d be lying if I said I don’t care if it is negative.
I’ve got an appointment to donate blood on Friday through the Red Cross and they’ve started to do anti-body testing with that. I’m interested to see my results too, but of course being able to help possibly save someone’s life with my blood is the most important thing.
Controversy on COVID-19 mask study spotlights messiness of science during a pandemic
So it says in there
“I would say, ‘Mask use is our best judgment right now, and we will tell you if we get more evidence,” he said.
Both Kriebel and Haber agree that masks probably do offer a level of protection, but right now there is no way to tease out how much protection masks offer versus physical distancing of 6 feet or more, or hand washing.
I also went back to try to digest more information from my linked paper. I guess they are saying if masks were bad there would be an explosion of cases in Asia?
These results support the universal wearing of masks by the public to suppress
the spread of the coronavirus.1 Given the low levels of coronavirus mortality seen in the Asian countries which adopted widespread public mask usage early in the outbreak, it seems highly unlikely that masks are harmful.
Also, the citation took me here where there are more notes on the research including a couple graphs of different countries mask/mortality rates. Kind of hard to read because the colors they used.
I think the point I’m trying to make is that studies hit the press before they are properly reviewed but the media still gobbles them up and spits them out to us to digest. This isn’t new, it happens all the time with nutritional studies that have a very poor track record of being reliable.
Dr. Osterholm is conducting some sort of study or meta analysis with a group of experts from various fields to assess what it really takes to get an infectious dose and what that means as far as preventative measures like masks. I’ll be sure to post the results here when I see it.
But again, we need to separate the recommendation for mask wearing in general from policies that rely on their effectiveness. It’s ok to recommend mask wearing as long as it isn’t a substitute for other preventative measures because there is no evidence that that cloth masks can reduce the need for other measures.
That’s the honesty that Dr. Osterholm talks about. If we tell people it will protect them, we’re lying.
It seems to me everything is going to plan. The hospitals are not overloaded and the virus is even waning some. The initial goal was to not be overwhelmed and we have done that. The virus isnt going anywhere but people have learned how to avoid it well enough to be manageable. Considering the state of affairs in this country right now any additional full lock-down quarantines is unacceptable.
I think the point I’m trying to make is that studies hit the press before they are properly reviewed but the media still gobbles them up and spits them out to us to digest. This isn’t new, it happens all the time with nutritional studies that have a very poor track record of being reliable.
Dr. Osterholm is conducting some sort of study or meta analysis with a group of experts from various fields to assess what it really takes to get an infectious dose and what that means as far as preventative measures like masks. I’ll be sure to post the results here when I see it.
But again, we need to separate the recommendation for mask wearing in general from policies that rely on their effectiveness. It’s ok to recommend mask wearing as long as it isn’t a substitute for other preventative measures because there is no evidence that that cloth masks can reduce the need for other measures.
That’s the honesty that Dr. Osterholm talks about. If we tell people it will protect them, we’re lying.
Yeah I would say these types of papers shouldn’t even be viewed by the public/internet until they have been peered reviewed. But I am sure some of it is the researcher wants to be the ‘first’ on a discovery.
I don’t think I have seen a recommendation of if you wear a mask you don’t need to follow other protective measures?
I think even if Dr. Osterholm or other legit studies came out saying masks are somewhat effective many still wouldn’t care. I read something yesterday that I can’t find now talking about how so many Americans don’t believe in science and consider it just an opinion. Although with the rush of all these papers it does feel like just an opinion sometimes.
This has some political talk but also talks about constitutional rights vs public health.
“There’s no middle ground, there’s no common sense or application of good science,” she added. “I beg people to start listening to scientists, and stop listening to politicians on all things coronavirus.”
It seems to me everything is going to plan. The hospitals are not overloaded and the virus is even waning some. The initial goal was to not be overwhelmed and we have done that. The virus isnt going anywhere but people have learned how to avoid it well enough to be manageable. Considering the state of affairs in this country right now any additional full lock-down quarantines is unacceptable.
What a plan.
I think the only thing is the hospitals haven’t been overloaded. Other than that cases are rising (also compare against Western Europe), From what I can see a lot people are not doing anything protective measures, and if cases spike too much in some places I wouldn’t be surprised to see states shutdown again, which certainly will send us into a depression.
Jha and other public health experts say that America’s piecemeal, politicized approach to fighting coronavirus has left the United States ever-further behind the Western European nations that were similarly threatened by the virus but moved more judiciously to fend it off. They also say that Western Europe is a better comparison point for the United States than nations like South Korea and Singapore, which had been scarred by previous viral outbreaks and were more prepared to handle the arrival of Covid-19. After the damaging initial spike in cases, European Union members’ total daily case count is now about one-eighth of the U.S. daily cases — despite having roughly the same population.
“Both we and Western Europe were really slow to act But the worst performers in Europe with the bad luck to get hit first, like Italy and Spain … they are now down 85, 95 percent in terms of case counts from the peak.”
“In the US, we’ve struggled to get it down one-third — and in the last few days, it looks like it could rebound again”
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>suzuki wrote:</div>
It seems to me everything is going to plan. The hospitals are not overloaded and the virus is even waning some. The initial goal was to not be overwhelmed and we have done that. The virus isnt going anywhere but people have learned how to avoid it well enough to be manageable. Considering the state of affairs in this country right now any additional full lock-down quarantines is unacceptable.What a plan.
I think the only thing is the hospitals haven’t been overloaded. Other than that cases are rising (also compare against Western Europe), From what I can see a lot people are not doing anything protective measures, and if cases spike too much in some places I wouldn’t be surprised to see states shutdown again, which certainly will send us into a depression.
Jha and other public health experts say that America’s piecemeal, politicized approach to fighting coronavirus has left the United States ever-further behind the Western European nations that were similarly threatened by the virus but moved more judiciously to fend it off. They also say that Western Europe is a better comparison point for the United States than nations like South Korea and Singapore, which had been scarred by previous viral outbreaks and were more prepared to handle the arrival of Covid-19. After the damaging initial spike in cases, European Union members’ total daily case count is now about one-eighth of the U.S. daily cases — despite having roughly the same population.
“Both we and Western Europe were really slow to act But the worst performers in Europe with the bad luck to get hit first, like Italy and Spain … they are now down 85, 95 percent in terms of case counts from the peak.”
“In the US, we’ve struggled to get it down one-third — and in the last few days, it looks like it could rebound again”
Even though cases continue to rise the death toll has dropped considerable.
Even though cases continue to rise the death toll has dropped considerable.
Deaths are a lagging indicator. What happens in cases today shows up in deaths 4 weeks from now.
I don’t think I have seen a recommendation of if you wear a mask you don’t need to follow other protective measures?
Hair salons, restaurants and bars are a perfect example. We need to physical distance except in these places where staff is required by executive order to wear masks and in hair salons, the customer too.
There’s talk amongst health officials of fans attending twins games this summer. My guess would be that masks would be mandatory even though gatherings of a certain size would be banned.
These are the types of policies that are not backed by science at all.
Ahh yes. I wasn’t even thinking of those.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Angler II wrote:</div>
Even though cases continue to rise the death toll has dropped considerable.Deaths are a lagging indicator. What happens in cases today shows up in deaths 4 weeks from now.
The numbers don’t support that.
We do what we can without committing national suicide. (which has already happened to some degree) Fight it, get used to it and keep moving forward.
The numbers don’t support that.
Are you saying 4 weeks from now deaths are going to continue to fall?
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>blank wrote:</div>
Matt, can you give a quick summary as to how he squashed that theory, or to what his explanation was?I haven’t finished it yet but he basically said that there are numerous locations where cases are rising rapidly where people wouldn’t be cooped up indoors due to hot weather.
say, did you ever finish this? I was going to listen to it while exercising but decided to lay on the couch instead.
I did. It’s a little concerning because he is starting to think we won’t have a second wave and this will be a slow constant burn. There’s also a lot of studies confirming that antibodies wane very quickly, like within 3 months. It inconclusive what these studies are really telling us but there’s worry that immunity may not be a given. It casts some doubt about vaccines too.
We are already hearing Fauci and the CDC say we are not in a secondary wave yet so it sort of aligns with what they are saying.
My initial reaction is that this is really bad news and we need to focus very heavily on the economy, hospital capacity and treatments if we can’t get this to go away.
Does anyone have a link to the change in tests over time? It would be interesting to see that in relation to the increase of confirmed cases. Also, we are exactly one month from George Floyd’s death, the massive protests/riots sans any semblance of social distancing and MN #’s continue to tumble (other than cases, which hasn’t spiked).
bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/by-the-numbers-the-novel-coronavirus-in-minnesota
And the actual number of infected still is an unknown, but seems pretty clear we are looking at a significant multiplier anywhere from 30-80x.
news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/research/initial-covid-19-infection-rate-may-be-80-times-greater-originally
I follow a sub on reddit that puts out various charts every day monitoring various aspect of the daily data.
The general consensus is that the protests and civil unrest have only a small affect on cases.
Here are a couple with today’s updated numbers. Hopefully the links work. I copied them out of the app.
Does anyone have a link to the change in tests over time? It would be interesting to see that in relation to the increase of confirmed cases
I would say read this. It is all in the positive percentage. More testing means the positive rate should go down (which it did in the beginning because the US tested so few people). Some states the positive rates are going up even with more testing.
The third link I provided shows the daily positive test rate. Our daily tests have gone way up while positive tests are going down.
It’s impossible to determine but there’s a slight chance that increased testing capacity is actually bringing our numbers down. Totally speculative but possible.
post deleted
From reddit?!
I get it, your too good for reddit.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>suzuki wrote:</div>
From reddit?!I get it, your too good for reddit.
No you were too fast for my update.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
Does anyone have a link to the change in tests over time? It would be interesting to see that in relation to the increase of confirmed casesI would say read this. It is all in the positive percentage. More testing means the positive rate should go down (which it did in the beginning because the US tested so few people). Some states the positive rates are going up even with more testing.
B-Curtis that is pretty cherry picked, I’m looking for just the hard data.
The actual # of tests per day over time. That can the be compared to the positives, which yes gives positive percentage, but also perspective on the trends.
Thanks Matt, that is probably as close to exactly what I was looking for as there is available!
And the actual number of infected still is an unknown, but seems pretty clear we are looking at a significant multiplier anywhere from 30-80x.
My thought on this is likely 10-20x depending on location. There’s good evidence New York City is between 15-20% infected. Other places is more like 5-7%.
The 30-80% you’ve probably seen relates to a recent study about a specific period of time where testing rates were very very low like in March. But that factor has fallen over time as testing has ramped up.
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