COVID 19 Facts and Science

  • Hot Runr Guy
    West Chicago, IL
    Posts: 1933
    #1949376

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Hot Runr Guy wrote:</div>
    What i find interesting is his position that tight-fitting N-95 masks be reserved for the medical profession, like himself.

    If you were to listen to his previous podcast, he actually wears a cloth mask only to eliminate conflict.

    Page 28, last paragraph. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/special_episode_masks_6.2.20_0.pdf

    And yes, I use a cloth mask in public
    places, even if I’m not convinced it’s going to make any real difference in protecting me. I do it
    because I don’t want to make other people feel uncomfortable if they see me without one. This is
    the new unfortunate culture of mask shaming. Please, this shouldn’t be about politics, this should
    be about public health and science.

    And there-in lies the hypocrisy, he’d rather wear a cloth mask in public, and provide a Dr. Feelgood example, than educate the public on how much better a fitted N-95 mask may be, and risk the healthcare providers not having enough.

    HRG

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1949389

    And there-in lies the hypocrisy, he’d rather wear a cloth mask in public, and provide a Dr. Feelgood example, than educate the public on how much better a fitted N-95 mask may be, and risk the healthcare providers not having enough.

    HRG

    I’m not following. I don’t get hypocrisy part? Hes being honest about the limits of cloth masks and the effectiveness of N95 masks. He recommends they are reserved for medical professionals because there is a severe shortage of them. He himself wears a cloth mask ONLY to appease the misinformed and avoid unnecessary conflict. Technically he could be considered a medical professional but why do you think he wears an N95 mask in provate where it doesn’t matter? I don’t see how that’s hypocrisy.

    I think it only highlights the ridiculousness of the politicizing of this whole situation.

    mahtofire14
    Mahtomedi, MN
    Posts: 11024
    #1949390

    Why do I want it banned?

    Because this is the 397th thread we’ve had on this and it generates the same data that gets proved wrong or changed a week later. It generates the same replies and same arguments from the last post. We don’t know crap about this virus. That’s all that matters. Nobody. So use common sense, have respect for people’s space and lets go on with our lives.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1949395

    Fair enough. There’s obvious a few of us that have no problem sharing info in friendly manner and discussing the topic. I don’t think there’s any harm in that.

    I didn’t realize a new topic would tick people off so much.

    greig john
    Inactive
    Minnesota
    Posts: 106
    #1949396

    Fair enough. There’s obvious a few of us that have no problem sharing info in friendly manner and discussing the topic. I don’t think there’s any harm in that.

    I didn’t realize a new topic would tick people off so much.

    It irritates certain people.
    The ones that forget they don’t have to click on it if they don’t want to read about it.

    mahtofire14
    Mahtomedi, MN
    Posts: 11024
    #1949397

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Matt Wodziak wrote:</div>
    Fair enough. There’s obvious a few of us that have no problem sharing info in friendly manner and discussing the topic. I don’t think there’s any harm in that.

    I didn’t realize a new topic would tick people off so much.

    It irritates certain people.
    The ones that forget they don’t have to click on it if they don’t want to read about it.

    I just can’t believe people still want to talk about it. It’s all anyone has been talking about for the whole year. You aren’t tired of talking about it?

    greig john
    Inactive
    Minnesota
    Posts: 106
    #1949420

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>greig john wrote:</div>

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Matt Wodziak wrote:</div>
    Fair enough. There’s obvious a few of us that have no problem sharing info in friendly manner and discussing the topic. I don’t think there’s any harm in that.

    I didn’t realize a new topic would tick people off so much.

    It irritates certain people.
    The ones that forget they don’t have to click on it if they don’t want to read about it.

    I just can’t believe people still want to talk about it. It’s all anyone has been talking about for the whole year. You aren’t tired of talking about it?

    First, I’ll say that I can understand why people would be tired of hearing about it. I do get that, but others aren’t.

    I find most aspects of it pretty fascinating, actually. I mean, it’s a new virus that behaves very differently in different people. The science of that intrigues me.

    And the various reactions of different countries, cities, people, etc is equally fascinating at a high level. I’ve never been through a similar event so watching it unfold is very interesting.

    If you weren’t going through this, and a movie came out about what we’ve been through in 2020 so far, you wouldn’t watch it? This is bananas.

    mplspug
    Palmetto, Florida
    Posts: 25026
    #1949425

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Hot Runr Guy wrote:</div>
    And there-in lies the hypocrisy, he’d rather wear a cloth mask in public, and provide a Dr. Feelgood example, than educate the public on how much better a fitted N-95 mask may be, and risk the healthcare providers not having enough.

    HRG

    I’m not following. I don’t get hypocrisy part? Hes being honest about the limits of cloth masks and the effectiveness of N95 masks. He recommends they are reserved for medical professionals because there is a severe shortage of them. He himself wears a cloth mask ONLY to appease the misinformed and avoid unnecessary conflict. Technically he could be considered a medical professional but why do you think he wears an N95 mask in provate where it doesn’t matter? I don’t see how that’s hypocrisy.

    I think it only highlights the ridiculousness of the politicizing of this whole situation.

    I don’t wear a mask or anything, but I give people space. I understand what he is saying in wearing a mask to avoid dirty looks.

    mahtofire14
    Mahtomedi, MN
    Posts: 11024
    #1949428

    The science of that intrigues me.

    If you weren’t going through this, and a movie came out about what we’ve been through in 2020 so far, you wouldn’t watch it? This is bananas.

    I can respect that. As for the movie the problem is we’re living it. I wish it was a movie and not real life. I’m sick of it. doah

    b-curtis
    Farmington, MN
    Posts: 1438
    #1952238

    Not sure if we are allowed to post this until after the poll closes but I read an article this morning in the Atlantic about men not wearing masks so it got me wondering if there has been any new studies out there. I found several of these types of statistical studies that show wearing a mask is working, but still haven’t really found a clinical study showing cloth masks work except for the one posted with ACS NANO.

    This one seems pretty in-depth. I don’t understand most of it but page 10 has an eye-grabbing figure. That Jeremy Howard called it ‘Stunning’ but he is the same guy that Dr. Osterholm said is unqualified. So…I dunno?

    study of wearing a mask

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952259

    B-Curtis

    I went to page 10 and noticed that the authors considered mask wearing the only form of control in that part of the paper. All the counties he highlights are countries that have dealt with SARS and MERS and are much better prepared for these types of outbreaks. They also have had the most severe lockdown measure and the most effective contact tracing measures. Their hospitals also are much better equipped with ventilators than western countries.

    I am really surprised they didn’t note this in the paper.

    The countries and cities they highlight were: (Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Macau, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines),

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952260

    That’s a good article Mike. It highlights a lot of what another article I read pointed out. Aerosols are the biggest player in this. More and more studies are findings this.

    The key term is “infectious dose”. This isn’t a game of tag where someone walks by you and gives you the virus.

    b-curtis
    Farmington, MN
    Posts: 1438
    #1952262

    I thought they covered all the different measures pretty well throughout the paper but I am not a statistician . Yes the discussion on masks starting on page 7 was around blue line early-adopters (like the ones you mentioned), orange line slow-adopters, and red line non-adopters. I guess for a true comparison we would need a country that was severely locked-own but didn’t require a mask.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952273

    I thought they covered all the different measures pretty well throughout the paper but I am not a statistician . Yes the discussion on masks starting on page 7 was around blue line early-adopters (like the ones you mentioned), orange line slow-adopters, and red line non-adopters. I guess for a true comparison we would need a country that was severely locked-own but didn’t require a mask.

    Well, the countries with by far the best containment results never implemented mask policies at all. Those are Iceland and New Zealand. New Zealand actually reduced cases to 0 and may still be that way.

    Both countries have a huge advantage being an island nation but it’s clear that mask policies played no part in the containment whatsoever.

    blank
    Posts: 1759
    #1952279

    I keep seeing people pointing out Iceland and New Zealand. Great for them to be able to squash the virus, but they are so incredibly different than so many other countries, and especially the US. One being they are islands, but their populations are so small and it’s much easier to lock down a small population, and to have a mostly collective agreement on how to combat the virus.

    joe-winter
    St. Peter, MN
    Posts: 1281
    #1952282

    I keep seeing people pointing out Iceland and New Zealand. Great for them to be able to squash the virus, but they are so incredibly different than so many other countries, and especially the US. One being they are islands, but their populations are so small and it’s much easier to lock down a small population, and to have a mostly collective agreement on how to combat the virus.

    I think the point that Matt was trying to make about those island nations is that masking was not part of their “collective agreement”. But I completely agree with you Blank that they are truely unique.

    b-curtis
    Farmington, MN
    Posts: 1438
    #1952284

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
    I thought they covered all the different measures pretty well throughout the paper but I am not a statistician . Yes the discussion on masks starting on page 7 was around blue line early-adopters (like the ones you mentioned), orange line slow-adopters, and red line non-adopters. I guess for a true comparison we would need a country that was severely locked-own but didn’t require a mask.

    Well, the countries with by far the best containment results never implemented mask policies at all. Those are Iceland and New Zealand. New Zealand actually reduced cases to 0 and may still be that way.

    Both countries have a huge advantage being an island nation but it’s clear that mask policies played no part in the containment whatsoever.

    good point. I guess I would hope they are included in the non-adopter group but they don’t break down which countries are in each group.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952285

    I keep seeing people pointing out Iceland and New Zealand. Great for them to be able to squash the virus, but they are so incredibly different than so many other countries, and especially the US. One being they are islands, but their populations are so small and it’s much easier to lock down a small population, and to have a mostly collective agreement on how to combat the virus.

    I agree but it shows how adherence to lockdowns, adherence to self quarantine, restricting incoming travel and contact tracing play a major role in controlling the spread. All of this in spite of mask wearing.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952287

    they don’t break down which countries are in each group

    Sort of a red flag for me.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952292

    To be clear on the mask thing, it’s my opinion they probably aren’t harmful at all. My position is that policies relying on their effectiveness to reduce physical distancing measures are harmful.

    Somehow we can now get haircuts as long as masks are worn but without them it’s not ok. If they all of a sudden declare that we can attend sporting events and concerts if we all wear masks, there’s going to be some serious problems. I feel we’re headed down that road.

    blank
    Posts: 1759
    #1952297

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>blank wrote:</div>
    I keep seeing people pointing out Iceland and New Zealand. Great for them to be able to squash the virus, but they are so incredibly different than so many other countries, and especially the US. One being they are islands, but their populations are so small and it’s much easier to lock down a small population, and to have a mostly collective agreement on how to combat the virus.

    I agree but it shows how adherence to lockdowns, adherence to self quarantine, restricting incoming travel and contact tracing play a major role in controlling the spread. All of this in spite of mask wearing.

    I completely agree. I apologize if I came across in a negative way on that post. I guess my point was that they’re not exactly apples to apples comparison with other countries, especially not the US.

    blank
    Posts: 1759
    #1952302

    To be clear on the mask thing, it’s my opinion they probably aren’t harmful at all. My position is that policies relying on their effectiveness to reduce physical distancing measures are harmful.

    Somehow we can now get haircuts as long as masks are worn but without them it’s not ok. If they all of a sudden declare that we can attend sporting events and concerts if we all wear masks, there’s going to be some serious problems. I feel we’re headed down that road.

    Totally agree.

    It is very interesting to see the decline in cases in MN, despite the protests and such. Which is good to see.

    b-curtis
    Farmington, MN
    Posts: 1438
    #1952306

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
    they don’t break down which countries are in each group

    Sort of a red flag for me.

    Just out of curiosity when you say red flag do you mean they are hiding something, have an agenda, or don’t know what they are doing? I don’t do peer reviews on scientific papers but I assume all of that data is available just not part of the online version.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952312

    Here’s my theory on the decline in cases in MN in spite of rising cases in southern states.

    I was reading something way back in March that many of these diseases will wane in the warmer months without knowing exactly why, it was hypothesized that people spending most of their time confined together in the cooler months leads to much higher transmission of viruses. The heat or weather itself play no direct role.

    Naw fast forward to June in MN, the time spent outside by people in the upper Midwest is significantly higher than even a month ago. Even May was a cold month for us. Then you look to the south where it’s hot, people are spending more time together in the air conditioning.

    In my opinion the time being spent outside has brought down the transmission significantly.

    I was going to send a question to Michael Osterholm about this to see his thoughts. Supposedly he answers some of these questions from the public and includes them in his podcast.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952314

    Just out of curiosity when you say red flag do you mean they are hiding something, have an agenda, or don’t know what they are doing? I don’t do peer reviews on scientific papers but I assume all of that data is available just not part of the online version.

    I am definitely not qualified to do peer reviews either but good papers will have a lot more transparency there and in the limitations.

    I see a lot of papers that get release and devoured by the media that really doesn’t tell us anything definitive at all and they seem to draw strong conclusions from questionable data in spite of declaring the data is questionable.

    Take this lancet article for example. They draw a very strong conclusion while in the same sentence admitting the data is extremely questionable. How can they do that?www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext#%20

    The primary limitation of our study is that all studies were non-randomised, not always fully adjusted, and might suffer from recall and measurement bias (eg, direct contact in some studies might not be measuring near distance). However, unadjusted, adjusted, frequentist, and Bayesian meta-analyses all supported the main findings, and large or very large effects were recorded. Nevertheless, we are cautious not to be overly certain in the precise quantitative estimates of effects, although the qualitative effect and direction is probably of high certainty. Many studies did not provide information on precise distances, and direct contact was equated to 0 m distance; none of the eligible studies quantitatively evaluated whether distances of more than 2 m were more effective, although our meta-regression provides potential predictions for estimates of risk. Few studies assessed the effect of interventions in non-health-care settings, and they primarily evaluated mask use in households or contacts of cases, although beneficial associations were seen across settings. Furthermore, most evidence was from studies that reported on SARS and MERS (n=6674 patients with COVID-19, of 25 697 total), but data from these previous epidemics provide the most direct information for COVID-19 currently. We did not specifically assess the effect of duration of exposure on risk for transmission, although whether or not this variable was judged a risk factor considerably varied across studies, from any duration to a minimum of 1 h. Because of inconsistent reporting, information is limited about whether aerosol-generating procedures were in place in studies using respirators, and whether masks worn by infected patients might alter the effectiveness of each intervention, although the stronger association with N95 or similar respirators over other masks persisted when adjusting for studies reporting aerosol-generating medical procedures. These factors might account for some of the residual statistical heterogeneity seen for some outcomes, albeit I2 is commonly inflated in meta-analyses of observational data,21, 22 and nevertheless the effects seen were large and probably clinically important in all adjusted studies.

    biggill
    East Bethel, MN
    Posts: 11321
    #1952320

    Here’s my theory on the decline in cases in MN in spite of rising cases in southern states.

    I was reading something way back in March that many of these diseases will wane in the warmer months without knowing exactly why, it was hypothesized that people spending most of their time confined together in the cooler months leads to much higher transmission of viruses. The heat or weather itself play no direct role.

    Naw fast forward to June in MN, the time spent outside by people in the upper Midwest is significantly higher than even a month ago. Even May was a cold month for us. Then you look to the south where it’s hot, people are spending more time together in the air conditioning.

    In my opinion the time being spent outside has brought down the transmission significantly.

    I was going to send a question to Michael Osterholm about this to see his thoughts. Supposedly he answers some of these questions from the public and includes them in his podcast.

    Never mind, Mike just squashed my theory in the podcast he just released. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-13

    b-curtis
    Farmington, MN
    Posts: 1438
    #1952332

    The discussion section talks about some of the flaws of mask-wearing studies. It does even state “One major limitation is that evidence concerning the actual prevalence of maskwearing by the public are unavailable for most countries” and “ultimate source of mortality data is often
    from governments which may not have the resources to provide a full accounting of their public health crises, or an interest in doing so”

    I dunno. I went from wearing a mask to not wearing one based off Dr. Osterholm discussions and no creditable study, to I feel like I might be creeping back to wearing one. I’m not spending much time in the metro right now so that will probably keep me from doing it. I figure if the hicks don’t care then I don’t need to worry about protecting them (plus the chances I am infected are lower anyway…). rotflol

    blank
    Posts: 1759
    #1952334

    Matt, can you give a quick summary as to how he squashed that theory, or to what his explanation was?

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