COVID 19 Facts and Science

biggill wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>suzuki wrote:</div>
Mine was a legitimate thoughtful question that supported your statement. I thought you could provide insight.

You call it a legitimate thoughtful question. Everyone else calls it trolling.

You don’t know what you’re talking about. You obviously read whatever meaning suits you in any post. Let’s recap. You stated “The idea that the vaccine is unsafe based solely on the time it took to produce is completely false.” To which I can agree. Let’s assume a lot of people get the initial vaccine and it works. Wouldn’t that put us at the threshold % of herd immunity? ??

suzuki wrote:

Let’s assume a lot of people get the initial vaccine and it works. Wouldn’t that put us at the threshold % of herd immunity? ??

How many is a lot?

biggill wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>suzuki wrote:</div>
Mine was a legitimate thoughtful question that supported your statement. I thought you could provide insight.

You call it a legitimate thoughtful question. Everyone else calls it trolling.

Now Trolling or Troll or Lying or Liar or Fake News.
All typical responses by those who can not accept that there may other legitimate facts to consider.

biggill wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
That’s not what I said. But the 5 states and the US as a whole that I’ve been referencing, the 7 day averages are still on the decline except Texas.

You’re right I misquoted you but I’m still curious what data backs up what you are saying. Everything I see is showing deaths increasing.

The google page Werm references says wikipedia is the source for the deaths, but also uses the NYT data for other things. Trying to dig into some of the states yes maybe in the 7 days some do look ‘steady’. The NYT does 14 day and has 26 states (and PR but I understand that we are trying to sell PR so it doesn’t count) are increasing, although some look pretty small so those are probably ‘steady’ as well.

Yes Arizona is looking better. Pence is crediting face mask along with other guidelines.

Masks, closing indoor bars, decreasing indoor dining capacity to 25 percent, continued social distancing and personal hygiene messaging, according to the model, dramatically decrease the rate of community spread,” Vice President Mike Pence, chair of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said in the meeting (with the governors), “The modeling suggested to us that Phoenix was supposed to be at more than 5,000 cases daily and rising, and instead I was informed by our health experts this morning that they are [at] less than 2,300 cases,” Pence said on Monday. “Again, we believe that the three actions I just described that are being implemented by Gov. [Doug] Ducey are having a dramatic impact on community spread, and it’s a clear example of transmitting science into action and proving this works.”

Arizona doesn’t have a mask mandate but Phoenix does.

Now part of me is feeling a bit like those right-winger conspiracy lovers, but I wonder are cases magically going down because data is going to the WH to be cleansed. Yes I assume the data come from the state officials…but still makes you wonder.

biggill wrote:

<I agree about personal choice 100% but we simply cannot be using misinformation and anecdotal evidence to make that personal decision. The idea that the vaccine is unsafe based solely on the time it took to produce is completely false.

Well Matt I am sure as soon as one becomes available and they are looking for human’s to test it out on, You will be one of the 1st in line.
I know of several people who work in the Medical testing field and they say if any Vaccine is available to the general public prior to next Feb. – March then it most likely did not go thru the normal testing guidelines.

Those of you that follow this religiously, do the death numbers that are put out only deaths truly caused by the virus or do they also include deaths where the person had the virus but may have died from something else i.e. heart failure, diabetes etc?

Do the fish still bite during COVID?

Tom Albrecht wrote:

Those of you that follow this religiously, do the death numbers that are put out only deaths truly caused by the virus or do they also include deaths where the person had the virus but may have died from something else i.e. heart failure, diabetes etc?

My understanding is it varies by state. In MN we only report positive test deaths, with the exception of 40 deaths early on that were included as likely Covid based off symptoms but not test confirmed.

Tom Albrecht wrote:

Those of you that follow this religiously, do the death numbers that are put out only deaths truly caused by the virus or do they also include deaths where the person had the virus but may have died from something else i.e. heart failure, diabetes etc?

There lies the problem. No one will truly ever know how they are counting the #’s or Where they are coming from.

I know 2 people who had elderly relatives who died and they were both tested after their death to see if they tested positive for covid. 1 of them was positive and they were told it had to be reported as a covid related death – Even though the family members believed that the death had nothing due to covid. They had been battling cancer for over 1 year.

Just wanted to bump up this thread, as the 3 “hotspots” FL, AZ, and TX are all on the decline for deaths.

Texas:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Florida:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Arizona:
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/

Also, Sweden has had 0-3 deaths per day since July 27th. Their mortality rate is skewed as they have tested far less than their neighboring countries. They do have a much higher death rate per thousand or million residents, whether their neighboring countries catch up is tbd but I think it’s fair to say that gap will shrink at the very least.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1108867/number-of-coronavirus-tests-per-capita-in-the-nordics/

Wow, I thought this topic was closed.

I believe the death numbers lag in Florida and get attributed to the day the death occurred, but they are dropping…so to speak.

The positives from 2 days ago and possibly today are skewed. 2 days ago one lab dumped 4k positives that had accumulated since June.

I have a feeling that every state and country has a N number of cases they will hit and it is just a matter of how long it takes or if you are lucky enough to get a vaccine out before it has “run its course”. I think MN is going to get that second wave in oct and Nov. We got nailed because we opened bars temporarily at a time it was hot out. The heat drove people indoors. The cold will do the same to MN.

mplspug wrote:

We got nailed because we opened bars temporarily at a time it was hot out. The heat drove people indoors. The cold will do the same to MN.

I wondered if the searing heat in these southern states driving people indoors to air conditioning was playing a role.

My lovely wife’s flight to DC to visit our daughter was cancelled today. Due to the state of MN being on the naughty covid list. So much for my bachleor weekend.

gimruis wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mplspug wrote:</div>
We got nailed because we opened bars temporarily at a time it was hot out. The heat drove people indoors. The cold will do the same to MN.

I wondered if the searing heat in these southern states driving people indoors to air conditioning was playing a role.

I wonder if the hundreds and thousands of protestors climbing all over each other and shouting and chanting spewing their spittle all over each other played a role?
When they start shutting down these protestors and rioters in the name of keeping everyone safe from the Covid then come talk to me about how I’m supposed to alter my life.

Ice Cap wrote:

I wonder if the hundreds and thousands of protestors climbing all over each other and shouting and chanting spewing their spittle all over each other played a role?

I’m sure it did. You won’t catch me doing it Ice Cap.

Although, at least some of them were wearing masks and it was outdoors. Doing something outside is better than doing it inside. Maybe a moot point when you gather that many people regardless though.

gimruis wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ice Cap wrote:</div>
I wonder if the hundreds and thousands of protestors climbing all over each other and shouting and chanting spewing their spittle all over each other played a role?

I’m sure it did. You won’t catch me doing it Ice Cap.

Although, at least some of them were wearing masks and it was outdoors. Doing something outside is better than doing it inside. Maybe a moot point when you gather that many people regardless though.

In MN, the first half of June had declining number of new cases. Based on a 7 day moving average, the lowest number of new cases was June 19th (since May 1). George Floyd died on May 25th. Based on a up-to two week incubation period and the surmise that protests would increase infections, we should have seen an increase in cases during the first half of June.
Bars and restaurants were allowed to open on June 10th in MN. Cases started to increase again on June 20th, based on the 7 day moving average.

gimruis wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mplspug wrote:</div>
We got nailed because we opened bars temporarily at a time it was hot out. The heat drove people indoors. The cold will do the same to MN.

I wondered if the searing heat in these southern states driving people indoors to air conditioning was playing a role.

Just a theory, but in the flip side I am a firm believer that spread in outdoor areas is virtually nil. Even in crowded areas.

Research agrees for the most part. Aerosols don’t build up outside like they do in poorly ventilated indoor spaces.

Justin riegel wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Matt Wodziak wrote:</div>
The first child has died in MN from or (with) COVID-19. They were in the 0-5 age range and from Clay county. There’s no additional information on this.

I edited it a bit for you as this is the crux of this whole ordeal. Are people dying from Covid or with Covid? I have not been able to find any information on this yet.

Did the heart disease sufferer who was shot die from the bullet or with the bullet? My Google, Facebook, and YouTube searches are coming up empty. Heart disease kills more than a half million Americans annually. Can you be 100% SURE it was the bullet? That’s the crux of that argument.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
Deaths are decreasing across the board, even in AZ. WI has had 13 deaths in the last week, and MN has 29 deaths in the last week. Both significant downward trends, and way down from the peak in MN of 35 deaths 5/28 and 22 deaths on 5/27 in Wisconsin.

Maybe true in MN and WI. Otherwise not really true. For example I got this from the media. Maybe it is incorrect? I wouldn’t mind be corrected. Maybe the good news is how small the numbers are? I dunno.

In Texas, officials announced 119 deaths on Wednesday, surpassing a daily record for deaths in the pandemic that the state had set only a day earlier. In Arizona, more than 200 deaths have been announced already this week, and the daily virus death toll in the state reached higher than ever. Mississippi, Florida and Tennessee also set single-day death records this week.

Yeah Texas and Florida are outliers currently, but nationally, locally, and even in a hotspot like AZ the death toll is decreasing.

Texas:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Florida (yesterday was a big drop off from prior trends idk why):
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Arizona:
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/

US:
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+covid+deaths&oq=us+covid+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57.2335j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

We are not 2 months and 11 days from when we were told the sky was falling in AZ, TX and FL. Look at their #’s now

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
Deaths are decreasing across the board, even in AZ. WI has had 13 deaths in the last week, and MN has 29 deaths in the last week. Both significant downward trends, and way down from the peak in MN of 35 deaths 5/28 and 22 deaths on 5/27 in Wisconsin.

Maybe true in MN and WI. Otherwise not really true. For example I got this from the media. Maybe it is incorrect? I wouldn’t mind be corrected. Maybe the good news is how small the numbers are? I dunno.

In Texas, officials announced 119 deaths on Wednesday, surpassing a daily record for deaths in the pandemic that the state had set only a day earlier. In Arizona, more than 200 deaths have been announced already this week, and the daily virus death toll in the state reached higher than ever. Mississippi, Florida and Tennessee also set single-day death records this week.

Yeah Texas and Florida are outliers currently, but nationally, locally, and even in a hotspot like AZ the death toll is decreasing.

Texas:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Florida (yesterday was a big drop off from prior trends idk why):
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Arizona:
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/

US:
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+covid+deaths&oq=us+covid+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57.2335j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

We are now 2 months and 11ish days out from when we were told the sky was falling in AZ, TX and FL. But instead of the sky actually falling all 3 are now on a steep decline in deaths and hospitalizations. Sweden is another example of what happens if you do little to nothing to stop the virus. There will be a spike, but once that spike subsides you are on the road back to normalcy. In contrast places like MN and elsewhere that have taken huge measures to slow the spread, these places will continually see flare ups as the virus works it’s way through society much slower, and you end up with similar or possibly worse death rates and much longer negative societal impacts.

Sweden currently has about 10x as many deaths as it’s neighbors and the economy has been impacted just as much. Florida and Texas both shut down industries for a second time

Fish To Escape wrote:

Sweden currently has about 10x as many deaths as it’s neighbors and the economy has been impacted just as much. Florida and Texas both shut down industries for a second time

I am not positive but Florida and Texas never had a stay at home order. Again, I am not sure but I thought only bars and restaurants shut down to an extent the “second” time. I could be wrong there though.

Funny you always bring up Sweden’s economy. I am not sure but I would think their economy isn’t independent from the countries around it or even the rest of Europe. So if everyone else economy is stopped, I gotta believe Sweden’s would be drastically impacted.

“10x” the deaths. I assume you mean Norway, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia…You could cherry pick some countries if you want. How about the deaths in UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands? You could compare Sweden to them too right? While your at it could you compare mitigation strategies of Those 2 sets of countries?

How upset would you be if Minnesota deaths were the same as Sweden’s? Roughly half the population here in MN and we’re getting close to half as many deaths too. Just think if we did nothing like Sweden how much different Mn would look?

A few things: Sweden didn’t do “nothing.” They shut down a lot of schools and limited restaurants/bars. Comparing Sweden to countries that are the most similar seems to make the most sense to me. Of course their economy is tied to it’s neighbors but you would think it would be somewhat better if not shutting down was going to help their economy.
Not sure about Florida but Texas did have a stay at home order at the state level and at the county level in addition to stopping elective medical procedures.

Are we going to compare Sweden’s population to the US population in terms of chronic disease, obesity, and access to healthcare?

biggill wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Angler II wrote:</div>
Even though cases continue to rise the death toll has dropped considerable.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. What happens in cases today shows up in deaths 4 weeks from now.

Whatever happened to the resident expert on the topic?

I’m still waiting for all of his predictions to come true..

BigWerm wrote:

We are now 2 months and 11ish days out from when we were told the sky was falling in AZ, TX and FL. But instead of the sky actually falling all 3 are now on a steep decline in deaths and hospitalizations. Sweden is another example of what happens if you do little to nothing to stop the virus. There will be a spike, but once that spike subsides you are on the road back to normalcy. In contrast places like MN and elsewhere that have taken huge measures to slow the spread, these places will continually see flare ups as the virus works it’s way through society much slower, and you end up with similar or possibly worse death rates and much longer negative societal impacts.

Wow way to bring a thread back from the dead. I’m actually surprised this isn’t locked.

Hmmm I don’t recall the ‘sky was falling’ from the media I read. It was just being reported that these are the hotspots. You probably get your news from someplace else, or just added the sky is falling on your own to show how the media hypes things? I dunno? A month ago it was reported how great Arizona did in reversing coarse. Even an article where Pence, yes Pence, praised mask wearing in Phoenix to turn the tide. Even an article in CNN, yes CNN!, was praising Arizona as an example of a state that successfully reimplemented mitigation efforts as cases rose. Another article in I think either the NYT or Atlantic talking about Arizona as a model of being ‘open’ but then able to put in restrictions to cool the hotspot. I think that was supposed to be the point. Be ‘open’ and be able to put out hotspot as they come up. But as Dr. O has said that doesn’t really work in the US because we are one big continuous forest fire.

Fish To Escape wrote:

Sweden currently has about 10x as many deaths as it’s neighbors

Right now, but this virus isn’t going away, the impact among it’s neighbors will be felt for months or longer. Cases are going down in Sweden and spiking across the rest of the EU, including Denmark and Norway. Here’s a good write up on Anders Tegnell and the pragmatic Swedish approach.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-fbdb-43b7-9c66-26501693a371

b-curtis wrote:

Hmmm I don’t recall the ‘sky was falling’ from the media I read

Yes, by August most of these same “journalists” changed their tune, but at the moment in July when CASES spiked, they definitely perpetuated the sky is falling.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/7/8/21311347/arizona-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-outbreak

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/briefing/arizona-mary-trump-facebook-your-wednesday-briefing.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/pandemic-experts-are-not-okay/613879/

The Southern states are seeing surges mainly due to the South of the border influence. Migrant workers began crossing the border back and forth and while Mexico started their epidemic later than the US did, it is now increasing in prevalence in the Southern border states. Even states like Idaho which has a large influx of migrant workers for agriculture had seen an uptick.
Many residents of Texas and Arizona cross the border into Mexico for medications they can buy over the counter there that are prescription here. This also leads to more exposure and spreading when they return.
I follow multiple groups that “follow the data” vs the fear mongering the main stream media forces upon us. Much of the surge in “cases” is because the states are making up for a backlog in test results.
Did you know that MDH knowingly held back reporting thousands of negative test results in their numbers to solely share positive results? How do you suppose that shaped things?
When numbers are reported each day, it has to be taken with a grain of salt as cases (which are not an accurate way of judging where things are at with an epidemic) may have been positive tests from days/weeks ago. You have to dive into the data and look at positives from date of sample which isnt provided with their daily numbers, you have to go to the MDH site and dig into it.
Also, deaths may not be deaths on that particular day either.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Fish To Escape wrote:</div>
Sweden currently has about 10x as many deaths as it’s neighbors

Right now, but this virus isn’t going away, the impact among it’s neighbors will be felt for months or longer. Cases are going down in Sweden and spiking across the rest of the EU, including Denmark and Norway. Here’s a good write up on Anders Tegnell and the pragmatic Swedish approach.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-fbdb-43b7-9c66-26501693a371

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
Hmmm I don’t recall the ‘sky was falling’ from the media I read

Yes, by August most of these same “journalists” changed their tune, but at the moment in July when CASES spiked, they definitely perpetuated the sky is falling.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/7/8/21311347/arizona-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-outbreak

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/briefing/arizona-mary-trump-facebook-your-wednesday-briefing.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/pandemic-experts-are-not-okay/613879/

I guess I’m not sure what the sky is falling is. I can’t open a couple of the articles anymore, but the one is basically giving reasons why Arizona had an outbreak? So they report when things are going bad and report when things get better. So I do get confused…what is the media supposed to report? Don’t report when a state is having an outbreak? That is what the state-run network already does.

I personally think it is a bit early to know about Sweden. If I recall, it has been look how great Sweden is to Look how horrible Sweden is to looks like we are back to look how great Sweden is.