Back to School ?

mplspug wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>B-man wrote:</div>
The risk is worth the reward

67,000 Pediatricians agree.

Kids aren’t “superspreaders” of the virus (very, very few get sick enough to even become contagious)

I’d rather hang out around 50,000 kids in a school than ONE person in a nursing home.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-06-29/pediatric-group-calls-for-children-to-return-to-schools-despite-coronavirus%3fcontext=amp

This. I saw a story and they said that children just don’t spread it or it is very rare. Teachers and staff are far more likely to get it from each other than the children.

Get the kids in school the teachers and staff can wear masks I hear they work.

It is definitely extremely rare for kids to develop serious symptoms but unfortunately it is looking more and more like they can spread it effectively. I am sure the teachers and other staff will want PPE and for school to work they will probably need it (just to keep staff from getting sick with the expected teacher shortages).

Just an FYI the AAP has since walked back their position on schools opening a bit

Does everyone realize that they are testing people multiple times, in some cases in the double digits and all of those are reported as “new” cases?

Are we really gonna ruin a generation of children because of bad information and political interests??

Can’t even get people onboard to wear a mask ? This will get worse , before it gets better ! States reporting highest one day totals is not what we need .

I feel like now that we’ve made it 5 pages in here, everyone should take a couple hour break and go watch the Rodney Dangerfield classic, “Back to School”.

BigWerm wrote:

I feel like now that we’ve made it 5 pages in here, everyone should take a couple hour break and go watch the Rodney Dangerfield classic, “Back to School”.

yep……….sometime when you have no class……….call me!!!!!!

glenn57 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
I feel like now that we’ve made it 5 pages in here, everyone should take a couple hour break and go watch the Rodney Dangerfield classic, “Back to School”.

yep……….sometime when you have no class……….call me!!!!!!

“you can help me straighten out my Longfellow..”

Episode 16: Reopening Schools Part 1
July 16, 2020
In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss considerations for reopening schools in the fall, the concept of superspreaders and their role in the transmission of COVID-19, and recent statements regarding vaccines and masks.

TLDR;

What’s more important, bars/restaurants or kids attending school?

Dr. Osterholm….
Expert who can weigh in on one subject only.

Who’s the Dr. O for understanding the impact of a nation of kids with shatty education?

Hearing one side means nothing to me. Pro’s & Con’s is required to make a logical decision. Who’s representing the childeren?

Pros and cons are discussed in the podcast.

biggill wrote:

Pros and cons are discussed in the podcast.

By Dr. O?
Or by someone experienced in childhood development?

Sorry I haven’t gotten to the podcast.

FishBlood&RiverMud wrote:

By Dr. O?
Or by someone experienced in childhood development?

Sorry I haven’t gotten to the podcast.

By numerous organizations responsible for providing direction on the issue. I know one is the American Academy of Pediatrics. He is the subject of the podcast so there are no guests. They read off listener questions and he answers them.

This podcast literally discusses pros and cons without any recommendations from him. Next week he will provide useful recommendations. Ultimately the answer isn’t going to be an all in or all out scenario. There’s a number of moving parts that need to be worked out so that we do the best we possibly can.

I suspect what he talks about week to week revolves around what he is being asked of job by significant figures around the country. Like public officials and corporate CEOs.

FishBlood&RiverMud wrote:

Who’s representing the childeren?

Andy, that is one of the best questions I have seen asked!! Wish more were asking.

From what I have seen lately, the thresh hold in a community seems to be a 5% infection rate. If its above that, schools are not real willing to risk it. Below that there is some willingness to do it. LA County is almost 10% right now so they agreed not to do it.

Minnesota as a whole is currently at 4.7% weekly average. Prior to the 4th of July, it was 4.3% so its creeping upward.

Matt, thanks for posting the podcast. I listened to the whole thing.

Lots of information to process in that one.

Couple things I liked:

He talked about schools and this mantra to keep people “safe”. I am glad an expert is annoyed (in his way) with this thought there can be such a thing. Life has risks and there is gonna be some when kids go to school.

He acknowledges that it has to be done at the district level. He also adds that the districts SHOULD be mindful of their district not Houston’s. (this is my example).

He mentions that there has been zero correlation with outside activity and significant spread of disease. Football players, fall soccer, tennis, etc. PLAY ON!! no more important class in school then team sports. (I had a 4.0 in HS and a doctorate degree – thee most important and influential part of HS – IMHO).

The most critical piece and gimruis mentioned part of it is defining what it means to be a hot spot or tipping points in general. Who came up with 5%? Seems like these targets keeping getting moved. I worry most about this part as other people make decisions about my children and the amount of risk I want for them.

He also keep saying the only thing that surely works. Everyone who is scared of risks or is vulnerable, pay attention. STAY HOME! DISTANCE DISTANCE DISTANCE

****When I say “I” , i really mean my wife and I.****

Supposedly we are going to hear about schools in the next 1-12 days. I strongly think that incoming kindergarten class is going to be a problem. I have talked to three people who are definitely not going to transition their kids from daycare to “distance learning” if that is the case. I think that that will be the majority view – and why wouldn’t it be for working parents, or parents who want their kids to have a “normal” developmental experience.

This will create a weird rift in the educational “supply” timeline, just as I imagine it will impact the number of kids who wait another year for college.

I also think there will be lesser weird shifts with people wanting their kids to stay back/repeat grades because of the perception that distance learning leaves them at a disadvantage.

My oldest is going into kindergarten this year. I personally thin that the impact on these kids will be the least as long as they get some kind of development along the way. Some people hold their kids back instead of starting on time because studies show that these kids are more successful. Unfortunately mine will be of the oldest to begin with so we’ll see what happens.

biggill wrote:

My oldest is going into kindergarten this year. I personally thin that the impact on these kids will be the least as long as they get some kind of development along the way. Some people hold their kids back instead of starting on time because studies show that these kids are more successful. Unfortunately mine will be of the oldest to begin with so we’ll see what happens.

I personally am in the camp of not starting if it is distance. I think that the impact at this age is far more significant than that of older kids. I find it hard to believe they would sick the truancy officer on you for having your kid in the learning environment of daycare/preschool instead of at home staring at a chromebook. All kids are different, but lots of them need the social development as much as/more than the information (which is often easily obtained through distance learning). However, I am biased because of my perception of my own child’s experience.

Dr. Fauci says we should cautiously reopen.

mplspug wrote:

Dr. Fauci says we should cautiously reopen.

When i read this I pictured trump sitting next to him and like the movies he has a gun shoved in his gut under the table as fauci speaks lol

In other words listen to science only when the science is what you want to hear?

Haven’t you people heard that the admin is attacking/stifling the Dr?

Basing whether to open or close schools, businesses, or anything else on what the positive rate is a crock IMO. The number is so biased it’s ridiculous. The only people who are being tested are one’s who feel they have been infected or are somehow sick already. Unless the rate is based on a random sample of people, the number is pretty much worthless.

Some of these states are having such a high rate of infection now that they not only cannot re open schools, they need to back pedal and go back into lockdown mode. Opening up too early is clearly associated with a steep rise of infection.

blackbay wrote:

Basing whether to open or close schools, businesses, or anything else on what the positive rate is a crock IMO. The number is so biased it’s ridiculous. The only people who are being tested are one’s who feel they have been infected or are somehow sick already. Unless the rate is based on a random sample of people, the number is pretty much worthless.

I’m not sure if a random sample of people would be the best to support the opening of schools and other ways of life. Heck, it might actually hurt. With the current method of testing, it’s probably actually helping to keep places open because of contract tracing. The positive cases have a better chance of tracing back to where they were infected, rather than random testing and the positive cases don’t have any idea where they got infected. This is assuming that those who are symptomatic will also be tested while random testing is being done.

Colorado opened nearly the same time as Georgia. I believe indoor air condition has more of a correlation than just opening date.

Also, MN opened up the SAH order at our positives and deaths peak. kinda ironic.

ultimately, variables were way different for 4/1-6/1 vs 6/1 to present.

In MN……..
Consistent testing didn’t arrive until 6/1. The same time things opened up in the public.

The entire first pool of positives were all very symptomatic to the point of almost hospitalization. All suspected people and/or asymptomatic people were turned away. On 5/21 we had our peak positives day with 8298 tests given. (12% (+) rate) But think of what it truely was or at least think of what it would have been if we tested at the current rate.

We are now testing all individuals, many that have had zero symptoms. people who were exposed or who work in certain facilities or those who are part of the tracing process. Certainly symptomatic people too but this pool of positives is WAY different then the first.

Clearly people with symptoms are gonna have worse outcomes.

So direct correlation of this pool of positives vs the first pool of positives to eventual hospitalizations and deaths would not be using any science that I have heard of.

Now if we stop changing the variables we can start to draw accurate predictions.

joe-winter wrote:

Now if we stop changing the variables we can start to draw accurate predictions.

I would think that this will be ever changing. We shouldn’t be using case infection numbers alone to make decisions. Depending on testing capacity, the case positivity rate plays a major role when tests can’t be performed on anyone.

Hospitalizations are the key metric that really are going to drive the severity in a community. Unfortunately it’s a lagging indicator but I think you can use case positivity rate along with daily cases to draw predictions regardless of the variables.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thecentersquare.com/wisconsin/milwaukee-madison-schools-to-start-new-school-year-with-kids-at-home/article_9b822e16-c85c-11ea-a7dd-db317f4b7f60.amp.html

“There are also questions about teachers in both districts. The teachers unions in both Milwaukee and Madison don’t want to rush back into classrooms. They say students should stay at home until there are two weeks of zero positive coronavirus tests in either city. ”

from the article Crappie posted.

Even if there is a vaccine distributed by next summer, this won’t happen in even the 21-22 school year.

The most liberal cities in WI. Now what do you think MN is gonna do.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/nas-report-urges-school-districts-prioritize-reopening

But the authors of the report—a committee made up of experts in education, medicine, and epidemiology—concluded that because of the potential risks for students of keeping schools closed, districts should prioritize reopening with an emphasis on in-person learning. Distance learning cannot take the place of in-person interaction, they said, especially for younger children and special needs students who would be best served by in-person instruction, and disparities in access to reliable internet and electronic devices could compound already existing inequities.

“The risks of not having face-to-face learning are especially high for young children, who may suffer long-term consequences academically if they fall behind in the early grades,” the committee wrote.