Anyone Curious on Lumber Prices

Good one Munchy!

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munchy wrote:

February 5 2020

(Now $55….)

Prices are starting come down. The $55 last week I just checked is now $50.49.

Heard on the radio that Lumber futures are down 40% for the next 6 months.

Yup, futures are down along with inventory.
Try getting 14″ LVL’s, OSB seems brutal also.
My Lumber salesman said he placed an order for a house full of Marvin windows – Mid October delivery time.

The futures plummet continues, how long until we see inventory increases and price decreases follow suit?
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/lumber-prices-have-turned-negative-for-the-year-after-red-hot-rally-as-the-home-improvement-boom-cools/ar-AAM65yG?ocid=uxbndlbing

I need some treated 2×8 lumber for a small project. Priced from Menards about 10 days ago it was approx $300. Priced today it is down $50 on the total. Inventory was great. Need it in about 2 weeks. I won’t buy it till the day I want to use it. Being green I want to screw it down before drying out.

munchy wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>munchy wrote:</div>
February 5 2020

(Now $55….)

Prices are starting come down. The $55 last week I just checked is now $50.49.

Just checked and that same product is now $44.49

The part of the article that stuck out to me was:

“Yet many experts think lumber prices are likely to remain higher than their historical average over the last three decades of around $200 to $400.

Stinson Dean, CEO and founder of Deacon Trading, which trades lumber, told Insider in June supply and demand are normalizing and reaching an equilibrium.

“My argument is the ‘new normal’ is going to be significantly higher than the ‘old normal’.”

“Experts”
BAHAHAHAHA! No such thing.

My opinion fwiw is we will see prices come down significantly when the dust settles.

The drop continues.

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2x4x92 5/8 pre cut studs are $3.84 each at Menards today….

Joe Jarl wrote:

The drop continues.

Funny, not funny, I bought the lumber package for my new house at the very top of the blue line in 2021…

Oh well. All moved in now and worth it.

I locked in my lumber in week 18 of 2021 and glad I did. 1 time hind site worked for me.
If you are 1 of the people that waited from 2021 till now to build your house you did not save anything because of lumber prices. Everything else went up. Insulation, windows, doors, interest rates, etc. are all up from 2021. You might of saved on lumber but everything else ate up the difference.

We wrote a check for a house package August 18 of 2021 with lumber at $450 per 1000 board feet. Today it is at around $410. I’m glad to see it going down, but unfortunately few other costs are.

As I’ve said in previous posts, the best thing one can do is work with local yards who buy more regularly in smaller quantities which makes it easier to time things better (if you are only concerned about the price of lumber).

If you are taking on a new build or major project with financing, then that piece is far more crucial than all of the lumber and labor costs put together or timing the market. If you look at what a few % points of interest over 20-30 years does, it absolutely dismantles perceived savings in lumber or cheaper purchasing costs. It was cheaper to build a home in 2020 at $1200+ lumber prices than it is today at $410 lumber prices if any lending is involved. Hence why the market for new homes just kept rolling through those price surges, and why it is now will shut off for new builds that require financing.

In the local area here we are seeing the smaller remodels or additions that are not financed keeping things moving along with the backlog of small projects, along with the huge custom builds for people who are independently wealthy and essentially pay cash. The mid-sized builds and starter homes are griding to a fairly abrupt stop.

I just got my new truck Saturday and interest rates are absolutely insane right now. The Finance dude said he heard they are going to go up 3 more times soon.

Common lumber is dropping osb $15, down from $50 to $70. Precut 2×4 $4 down from over $12.
But I just built 2 Ghost shrimp pumps to catch bait in Florida. YouTube video from 2019 said cost to build was $15 to $20. Cost over $70 to build 2. I did a drainage project in 2019. 4″ schedule 40 was $13.85 for 10′. Last year it was $53.00. A plumber buddy says his wholesaler is still $6.50 a foot. I gave the ok to build a 15’x46′ extension on my garage April of 2020 {that’s still not done}. The aluminum siding was $220 a square. it’s now over $600. Worse news. It’s now no longer available in my color. So now we are waiting to have the whole house done in vinyl. If I was younger, I would defiantly hold off any projects. 2 more years the way things are going. There should be a lot of corrections.

This pic was taken January 25 2020

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^They used the nicest 18” of a Menards stud ever found to make a sign?!?