A Topic To Pis s off everyone: Where this virus goes.

My thesis (Nobody wants to listen so why not spew my thoughts here?)

1. US Cases are modeled to be #1 globally in less than a week. This is just a math question as we have doubled every 2.5 days.
2. Tip of the spear. Buy what you can now. Supply Chains are NOT getting better as we head to lockdown. I’m talking anything at risk. Now.
3. Unemployment numbers will skyrocket next week. ($ will hit the fan)
4. US GDP will go net negative in 6mo or less (Recession already here but about to be wayyyy worse)
5. This market will shed another 30%

I don’t say this to be hyperbolic – I say this to protect any IDOer that listens. Short of an antiviral or vaccine this isnt’ stoppping. NYC is about to announce 10k cases today alone.

Since you are speculating it should be taken with a grain of salt. While you may turn out to be correct you also could be wrong.

I’ll advocate the same thing as i’ve said since this started. Prepare for the worse but don’t get stupid crazy about it. Use common sense.

Yep, New York is exploding right now.

Why is it getting so out of hand there? Seattle is a drop in the bucket now compared to them.

Why? Maybe because NYC is the largest city in the US. By far.

They are also doing the most testing there.

Not that hard to figure out.

testing – That has been the issue of risk for a month. Its about to hit a fever pitch not seen in a century. My guess is (dutchboy this is speculation) – Market absolutely shits itself and we are effed for 12 months

I just read an article and they’ve dramatically increased the testing there.

How bad is it really here? Do we even know yet?

Doug Larsen wrote:

testing – That has been the issue of risk for a month.

What Urines me off also is, there is a shortage of test for those who need it and can’t get.
Why in the “FUBAR” do these professional sports leagues seem to have at will testing?
This is the group of Young Healthy men and women who are said to be least affected with this Virus.

Everytime I here about so and so, on this team has been confirmed to have the Virus it raises my Ire.

Once again Money

Jeff you are right. It’s money. There was a story about this on TV not long ago. Seems the athletes are buying the test from private medical places. Not necessarily from hospitals. It will come as no surprise that those with money will get priority testing and treatments at the expense of the middle and lower class. Been that way since the beginning of time. If there is no privilege to having money whats the point?

Lets not get the cart out in front of the horse just yet.

Props to Jeff for perpetuating the “Urine” vs P BTW

I just read something online that said:

How do you know if you have COVID-19 but can’t afford a test?
Cough in a rich person’s face and wait to see what their results are.

New Yorkers are packed on top of each other and public transportation is big.

In regards to athletes getting tested maybe they showed symptomsto get tested.you hear about them because the news puts them on a pedestal same as the Hollywood people. Media reports to make news and to stir the pot to make it sound like they are all getting tested.they bitch that the President wasnt tested then bitck again when they find out he did.

B-man wrote:

Yep, New York is exploding right now.

Why is it getting so out of hand there? Seattle is a drop in the bucket now compared to them.

1. lots of foreigners pass through there…..guessing many italians?
2. mass transportation
3. crowded as hell
4. everyone lives in close quarters spreading germs
5. 20 million people in such a small area and not really surprised

Dan wrote:

I just read something online that said:

How do you know if you have COVID-19 but can’t afford a test?
Cough in a rich person’s face and wait to see what their results are.

Not funny, but kinda funny

I don’t think its a coincidence that the hardest hit areas are big cities with lots of residents. More people = more likely to spread.

As of now New York is at .07% fatality rate. Nationally we are at 1.3% First death reported February 28th. First confirmed cases about a week before that but widely believed it’s been around for perhaps a month before that or more.
There are over 33,000 confirmed cases currently.

Total deaths 419 is the highest current toll I can find reported. The vast majority in the over 60 age group with pre existing health complications. And some of these in this age group are confirmed as recovered. I’m not as of now seeing this as a lethal killer. Based on these numbers justifying what we are doing to the economy is a hard thing to do imo.

It would seem our political immune response to a virus will kill the patient through the economy.

You can’t ignore the virus at the expense of business. If the workers die it really doesn’t matter what business survives.

They have the priorities where they need to be, people first, jobs second. And if you are paying any attention at all you know they are attempting to prop up business while fighting the virus.

Don’t try and read something into this that isn’t there.

When this pandemic passes, and it will, if half the business’s go out of business there will be half the jobs.
It takes a lot longer to start a new business than it does to restart one.

Ice Cap wrote:

I’m not as of now seeing this as a lethal killer. Based on these numbers justifying what we are doing to the economy is a hard thing to do imo.

It would seem our political immune response to a virus will kill the patient through the economy.

Well it (Covid-19) is a lethal killer, we know that already. But if it’s just old people…well they were close to dying anyway. Do you realize how that sounds?

If we learn anything from history (and too many ignore it) is that economic crisis has repeated itself over and again.

1929 set off the most historic economic collapse in what we categorize as “modern times” although little seems modern about it. Few, if any came through unaffected.

Many of the mortalities then were people jumping out of tall building windows because they lost everything. But the market crash and ensuing Great Depression (and dust bowl) did not kill them, the chose to take their own lives. They did not die from a disease, just their inability to cope.

People are and will die from this current virus. That they will not choose.

My father spoke of life during the depression and shared stories of his father (my grandfather) about his behavior and what they did to survive. And they did survive.

Younger generations now may be just removed enough from those previous generations to have little idea what it was like.

No two car garage, no garage at all…because they had no car. Look back on that history and realize we still have it far better than they did even after the fallout now.

Walleyestudent Andy Cox wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ice Cap wrote:</div>
I’m not as of now seeing this as a lethal killer. Based on these numbers justifying what we are doing to the economy is a hard thing to do imo.

It would seem our political immune response to a virus will kill the patient through the economy.

But if it’s just old people…well they were close to dying anyway. Do you realize how that sounds?

Who said that? I certainly did not. It’s what you wanted to hear and nothing close to what I said. I stated factual demographic numbers of who this disease is effecting. Don’t quote me then create a straw man out of it for you to fight. It’s intellectual laziness and makes whatever you wrote after that irrelevant.

Dan wrote:

I just read something online that said:

How do you know if you have COVID-19 but can’t afford a test?
Cough in a rich person’s face and wait to see what their results are.

Love it so true

While testing is important and something to be tracked, it’s the actual hospitalizations that are the parameter that will break the camels back. Sadly deaths will occure, but when the hospitals are full with a certain percentage of them going to die, it will be a shame for those that may recover with proper care that will die without it since all the beds are full.

Power plants are taking extraordinary measures to protect the skilled operators up to and including trying to get them to live at the plant and not leave the protective envelope.

Nuc plants have to operate in accordance with a site specific set of laws called Tech Specs which are governed by the NRC. In those Tech Specs are very specific working hours limitations for the licensed operators. If enough of them get sick, they will have to shutdown the plant to prevent overtime exceeding the limits.

The NRC can step in at any time and order nuc plants to shutdown and cooldown. That would make the US even more vulnerable to the effects of an EMP blast from a hostile actor.

Ice Cap wrote:

It’s intellectual laziness and makes whatever you wrote after that irrelevant.

What I wrote about “after that” are historical facts. You can choose to deem that irrelevant or…?

I may be guilty of many things, intellectual laziness is not one of them. However that’s your opinion and I’m fine with that.

What’s happening now has already happened. It’s a historical fact even though the times and players have changed.

What lessons have we learned from the past?

Ice Cap wrote:

As of now New York is at .07% fatality rate. Nationally we are at 1.3% First death reported February 28th. First confirmed cases about a week before that but widely believed it’s been around for perhaps a month before that or more.
There are over 33,000 confirmed cases currently.

Total deaths 419 is the highest current toll I can find reported. The vast majority in the over 60 age group with pre existing health complications. And some of these in this age group are confirmed as recovered. I’m not as of now seeing this as a lethal killer. Based on these numbers justifying what we are doing to the economy is a hard thing to do imo.

It would seem our political immune response to a virus will kill the patient through the economy.

Agreed. The #s will continue to spike as it spreads exponentially, and the # of people tested grows accordingly. However it takes a week or two for symptoms to show, so we really haven’t seen the impact of social distancing and other steps we have taken and increased in the last 2 weeks. Also only 16% of those infected need hospitalization and looking like under 1% mortality rate here. So we should see the growth rate level off sooner than later, just a matter of what signs they need to see before opening up society again. And regardless of age even if you get it, odds are you won’t need hospitalization and very unlikely you’d die. If you are over 60 and/or have a compromised immune system be very careful, and those of us who aren’t need to do everything in our power to slow the spread.

Doug Larsen wrote:

. NYC is about to announce 10k cases today alone.

Another perspective.Between 36 million and 51 million people have been stricken with the flu as of March 7, according to the latest CDC data.
According to CDC, this year’s flu season has led to at least 17 million medical visits and 370,000 hospitalizations. CDC found that the percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness increased to 5.2% in the week ending on March 7, up from 5.1% the previous week. The national baseline for those visits is 2.4%.
CDC estimated that there have been at least 22,000 deaths related to the flu so far this season. Social distancing will help with the flu as well as the coronavirus.
Why was nothing done about the flu?

Will the Caronavirus go as high as the flu? What help is it to know the numbers infected in real time other than pinpointing where the most infections are. Is the info skewed by giving test to the most effected with serious conditions only that may skew how bad this virus maybe.

Consider that if we did nothing, or a lot less, with the idea that somehow we are protecting the economy … would that really protect the economy? How many people would be acting normally in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic that lacked a serious response from the government? “Just go about your business, everyone, and when you catch it hope you don’t end up needing a ventilator or passing the virus along to a friend or loved one who does.” Yeah, that strategy would save our economy.

The COVID-19 pandemic is real and it’s hurting our fellow citizens and economy. Everyone has to do their part. This isn’t WWII, but note in any case that the greatest generation isn’t remembered for telling the government or the press or the scientists that they were wrong.

1hl&sinker wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Doug Larsen wrote:</div>
. NYC is about to announce 10k cases today alone.

Another perspective.Between 36 million and 51 million people have been stricken with the flu as of March 7, according to the latest CDC data.
According to CDC, this year’s flu season has led to at least 17 million medical visits and 370,000 hospitalizations. CDC found that the percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness increased to 5.2% in the week ending on March 7, up from 5.1% the previous week. The national baseline for those visits is 2.4%.
CDC estimated that there have been at least 22,000 deaths related to the flu so far this season. Social distancing will help with the flu as well as the coronavirus.
Why was nothing done about the flu?

Will the Caronavirus go as high as the flu? What help is it to know the numbers infected in real time other than pinpointing where the most infections are. Is the info skewed by giving test to the most effected with serious conditions only that may skew how bad this virus maybe.

still comparing it to the flu eh?
we are so f*cked as a country, it’s not even funny.
let’s overwhelm every hospital everywhere. no big deal.
it’s only a matter of time for Minnesota to blow up.
keep drinking the kool aid though.

No, I am not compairing it to the flu. Just not jumping off into the deep end like you seem to have done. Just showing a perspective for comparison.
So, flue season started in oct and the statistics go from then till March 7. Now it has been determined coronavirus started dec 10th and and 300,000 to 400,000 total cases world wide have been reported. Big difference between 36 to 51 million flue infections. Now, I sure hope it does not climb that high and not at a fast rate.
Be safe and healthy and do what you can to thwart off the virus. Eat better foods like superfoods such as berries, stop smoking and other stuff that can effect ones immune system. Stay home or at least stay away from others.
No one here, me included, are advocating not to take this serious. Just like anything get information from multiple reputable sources and go from there and take social media with a grain of salt with a pepto chaser.

Did anyone see Dr Faucci on with Mark Levin tonight?

Look up the interview.