2024/2025 NHL/WILD Offseason-Season-Postseason Thread

its all about % to cap, Kirill’s AAV will be based on what the cap is for the 2026/2027 season and then they agree on the Cap % variable…

Here’s the leagues top 8 % to cap players (20% is the MAX allowed in the CBA):

McDavid is 15.72%
Draisaitl is 15.91%
MacKinnon is 15.09%
Matthews is 15.06%
Panarin is 14.29% (same agent as Kirill)
Pasta is 13.47%
Marner is 13.37%
Petterson is 13.18%

Kirill’s current contract is 11.04%

Where does Kirill legitimately fit in that list? Top 4 are all centers with major trophies under their belts…The part that scares me is how high Panarin’s % was as a Wing at the time he signed and they have the same agent…I’m thinking/hoping it comes in around 14.5%, i’m basing that on Kirill playing Wing and the current premier Winger Pasta having 108 goals and 223 points over the past 2 seasons. Kirill has 86 goals and 171 points over the past 2 seasons…

Assuming the cap increases $5 million each of the next 2 seasons that puts the cap total to 98 Million when Kirill’s contract is up. 14.5% of 98 is $14.21 million aav, 15% is $14.7 million aav

Thankfully Leopold is on record saying he won’t be outbid…

All that research really doesn’t matter. You will for sure have to overpay no matter what to stay here.

Ripjiggen wrote:

All that research really doesn’t matter. You will for sure have to overpay no matter what to stay here.

we’ll see, I thought everyone said Winning is all Kirill cares about?

What does a current cap percentage now have to do with KK in future years for a starving franchise and a rising cap?

Ripjiggen wrote:

What does a current cap percentage now have to do with KK in future years for a starving franchise and a rising cap?

it’s a measuring stick data point that typically adjusts well to the changing cap number over the years, all of the %’s are pretty close to each other for the top players over the years, term also adjusts it a bit… I include his current cap % as a reference if somebody was curious…

as I mentioned, Panarins % is really the only one that is quite different…Then there’s the type of players who don’t seem concerned with % to cap at all and just wanted a good deal. Barkov and Aho are two good examples of that, yes their point totals are lower than the top guys, but its hard to argue they are less important to their teams…

Would love to be a fly on the wall during the negotiations, you wonder how involved Kirill will be, will he be demanding and say “I want to be at X aav” or if he just says “get a fair deal done” or “get the biggest deal done you can”

So old data to a flat cap. BG can use it all he wants.
If you don’t think that superstars will continue to set new contract highs with rising caps much like QB’s in NFL I think you are kidding yourself. Pie gets bigger they will get a bigger piece. KK will blow pastas 11.2 out of the water.

Ripjiggen wrote:

So old data to a flat cap. BG can use it all he wants.
If you don’t think that superstars will continue to set new contract highs with rising caps much like QB’s in NFL I think you are kidding yourself. Pie gets bigger they will get a bigger piece.

and yet Leon just signed for 15.9%, why didn’t he ask for 20%?

I agree they will always be gradually pushing the number, that’s what the NHLPA wants to have happen to all players, that’s tough to do with a set cap, like life, the lower players dont see the same types of jumps. I just think there’s a method to that madness and a reason why those % have remained pretty close to each other over the past…

Ripjiggen wrote:

KK will blow pastas 11.2 out of the water.

for sure, but that’s because his deal will be based on the higher cap ceiling and the likely higher cap % value used for the top Wings…

I think it’s going to come down to if Kirill wants to stay and if he wants a fair deal (GMBG’s favorite quote when discussing deals) or if he wants to be the highest paid Wing in the league by a wide margin (I think a fair deal already makes him the highest paid wing in the league)…

what’s funny is that the small adjustments they’ll likely argue about in % changes the aav marginally…at some points its just silliness (from a fans perspective) arguing over $13.875 vs $14.375 per year to play hockey…

JoeMX1825 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ripjiggen wrote:</div>
All that research really doesn’t matter. You will for sure have to overpay no matter what to stay here.

we’ll see, I thought everyone said Winning is all Kirill cares about?

I think that just cements Rips entire point. We arent proven winners and for him to stay here its going to take a premium.

Hey oh. Someone has been following my point here.

Ripjiggen wrote:

Hey oh. Someone has been following my point here.

GOt yer back buddy!

no way, if he’s all about winning and determines that’s not going to happen in Minnesota, he’ll leave… he’s not going to take an extra $750k or whatever it is a season to stay and lose… He’s already made XX millions of dollars the past 4+ seasons and he’s going to make $13+ million aav no matter where he signs next, he’s set for life…

We’ll all find out in July….

Would need $16 million from any other team to equal $14m from the Wild. That’s why Leo can say no one will offer him more money

JoeMX1825 wrote:

no way, if he’s all about winning and determines that’s not going to happen in Minnesota, he’ll leave… he’s not going to take an extra $750k or whatever it is a season to stay and lose… He’s already made XX millions of dollars the past 4+ seasons and he’s going to make $13+ million aav no matter where he signs next, he’s set for life…

We’ll all find out in July….

YOu are talking in circles Joe and not at all addressing the elephant in the room which was Rips point. No ONE is saying he is taking a discount we all know that, but here we are with you thinking someone has said it once again.

tswoboda wrote:

Would need $16 million from any other team to equal $14m from the Wild. That’s why Leo can say no one will offer him more money

Curious how you would arrive at that considering our income tax situation is ridiculous compared to most states.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

We’ll all find out in July….

Love how confident you are about this lol aside from 20yo McDavid did any of those highest paid guys you listed extend July 1? Or even the month of July?

Drai, Mackinnon, Matthews, Pasta, Marner, Petterson, Crosby, etc – lots of big name extensions coming late summer or even into the season

CaptainMusky wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>tswoboda wrote:</div>
Would need $16 million from any other team to equal $14m from the Wild. That’s why Leo can say no one will offer him more money

Curious how you would arrive at that considering our income tax situation is ridiculous compared to most states.

Wild can go 8 years, every other team 7
8*14 = 112
7*16 = 112

Ah gotcha, its just the extra year. That makes sense.

I never said he should take a discount, i’m saying if his decision is based on winning and if he thinks the Wild is not going to be a winner, then wtf would he take more money just to stay here and theoretically lose? He won’t, he’ll sign somewhere else for a similar ton of money and living where he choses…

I’m just basing my July prediction on what Billy has said in interviews, Russo reporting that Theonofus met with Billy last month, the owner saying he won’t be outbid (which in all honesty doesn’t make sense since other teams can’t bid until the following summer when he actually becomes a UFA) but it just seems like there’s really not much to negotiate about? if you think there is, let me know…The earlier they get the deal done, the less it becomes a distraction for everybody (Kirill and the Team)

I think Billy’s biggest fear is Kirill wanting to wait longer before making his decision on re-signing, it then becomes a season distraction and weakens the Wild’s already very limited negotiating power & timeline to trade him if the decision is he wants out…that’s a worse case scenario for the Wild…

If he already knows he wants to stay, then what would hold up the signing? (other than vacations or other scheduling issues getting to MN to sign it?)

I think you are arguing with yourself Joe. We all know he wants to win that is paramount. If that isnt going to happen here or he thinks it wont, hes gone we have all said that. He doesnt really care about the money, but he certainly isnt taking a discount either.

Wild can go 8 years, every other team 7
8*14 = 112
7*16 = 112

Sitting at the wild partnership summit as I type this and Leo literally said this exact line.

A lot of KK talk at this summit.

Make sure to get a message to KK that we really want to keep him and we will start a GOFUNDME to help

Ripjiggen wrote:

KK will sign the biggest contract for any position not just wing. He will get more than king Leon.
Unloading him sets this team way back. You will not get even half a return for him as the team he decides to go to has no reason to. They will have the leverage power as they will know they can wait a year and wink wink sign him for nothing.

Think BG is glad nobody wanted Gus Bus right about now and guessing there are some GM’s kicking themselves. Don’t think his seat is hot now but come this offseason it will surely start to warm up either way.

Totally agree with all of the above. KK gonna get paid BIG, no trade would give us anywhere near replacement value, and Billy Gee is very, very, very glad that he didn’t find a taker for Gus. OMG that would have been a disaster.

BG came up after Leo and said sarcastically yeah Craig makes my job so easy especially when he keeps repeating we will give KK whatever he wants.

Nobody asked BG any tough questions. I was going to say the folks at IDO have these 5 questions but I didn’t want our identities known. lol

Arena renovations and rebuilding of Roy Wilkins will be over a billion dollar project. Saw some really cool renderings and ideas.

I don’t think anybody ever said we would get any kind of value for Kirill in a trade, the thinking was its just better to get something rather than nothing… he has a full NMC, so its upto him where/if he goes…

If he wants out, I suppose one could argue if its better to trade him before his last season or at the deadline of his last season to get an idea if compensation would be different? at the deadline would open up all playoff teams to be able to afford him under the cap…

If the Wild give Kirill or Theofanous a single hint they’d consider trading Kirill, they immediately lose all the leverage of the 8th year… Which is currently their only advantage when it comes to $$$

Those sweet sweet juicy late 1st round picks would be so worth it though right

tswoboda wrote:

If the Wild give Kirill or Theofanous a single hint they’d consider trading Kirill, they immediately lose all the leverage of the 8th year… Which is currently their only advantage when it comes to $$$

Those sweet sweet juicy late 1st round picks would be so worth it though right

huh? Good lord you think they would entertain trades without knowing his decision on staying first?

They would only consider trading him if he specifically told them he would NOT sign an extension… and even then they would try all they could to get him to change his mind… and if all that fails they would sit down with him and ask where he wants to go… then GMBG calls that team and begs them not to completely screw him over…

I mentioned GMBG’s worst case scenario is Kirill saying he hasn’t decided yes or no to staying and that drags into next season and everyone is asked about it in every interview… They’d hopefully know his decision by the trade deadline and then act accordingly….

The 8th year “leverage” isnt even a thing because he’s gonna get it from the Wild no matter what, he and his agent know that today… that’s why I keep saying there’s really no negotiation other than the % to cap number (they’ll give him everything else he asks for) and if Kirill’s agent goes for a ridiculous number that just defies all logic used by superstars before him (Draisaitl, Mathews, McDavid all under 16%) then they are just playing the Wild and we’ll see where Leopold draws the line

If they know the Wild are willing trade Kirill if he won’t sign then all he has to do is ask for that trade and every team can sign him for 8 years, and now their $$ advantage is gone.

If only negotiations were ever as simple and to the point as the picture you keep painting here. Worst case scenario is he tells them Kirill’s not signing in Minnesota – that’s worst case scenario.

I’m sure at some point he’ll say they’re unsure and maybe want to test the market. I mean last time they did this Theofanous said Kirill was gonna stay in Russia for $10,000,000. Now you think he’s just going to walk in and ask where to sign?

Great Zuccy took one to the nads and Ek out. Neither have returned. Here we go again!

Rats. Not good. Zuc takes a hit to the lower unit and Ek just disappeared. Down 2 men.