Some notes in the Athletic about some trade targets that have been linked to the wild here and elsewhere.
Brock Boeser: Boeser is a quality scorer, there’s no doubt about that. Over the last two seasons, Boeser has scored at a 36-goal and 68-point pace, making him a legit top-six scorer. He’s a valuable player who will make any team better.
The issue is that Boeser doesn’t bring much else to the table aside from that, limiting his value. He’s an extreme passenger in transition and on the forecheck, plus he’s below average defensively. It’s what some would describe as “empty-calorie production,” where Boeser’s value is probably a fair bit lower than his goal totals would suggest. Boeser is great — scoring goals is important! — he’s just not as valuable as a different 30-goal winger who can offer more outside of putting the puck in the net.
There’s room for that archetype on a contender, especially one who needs some finishing oomph and is all set in the play-driving department. But it does make finding a fit on a contending team harder. While Boeser has experience in tougher minutes, that experience doesn’t really point to a player who can win those matchups, especially without help.
Those caveats to Boeser’s game are probably why he’s available in the first place. His production may suggest an $8 million deal is fair, but the rest of his game drags his value down to the $6.5 million range. That discrepancy could be the catalyst for a split.
Brock Nelson: There’s a good chance whoever snags Nelson wins the deadline. He’s that good. Nelson flies a little under the radar on Long Island, but he’s proven to be a consistently strong needle-mover. He can put the puck in the net to a high degree and can outscore opponents like clockwork. His projected Net Rating of plus-7.5 would make him one of the stronger 2Cs come playoff time — a huge advantage for a contender.
Nelson has been much quieter this season with just 17 goals and 37 points in 57 games, but that has more to do with the team’s completely dysfunctional power play than it does him. At five-on-five, Nelson has kept up with where he’s been the past three seasons, scoring 0.94 goals per 60 and 2.24 points per 60 — both top-line rates. On a contending team he’s the ideal second-line center, but league-wide he’s arguably one of the 32 best around.
What jumps out with Nelson most is his total impact with the puck. This year, he has one of the highest scoring chance contribution rates as an elite shooter and passer. He’s heavily involved in retrieving pucks in his own zone and is elite at turning those into clean exits — a trait often found in the league’s top defensive centers. Nelson is a defensively responsible player who makes sure his team doesn’t have to defend often and does well at turning pucks up ice, too.
Nelson can move the needle in a big way for a contender and though his production may not sizzle the same as in years past, he’s still probably worth the high cost to acquire.
Dylan Cozens: I’m hesitant to put Cozens in the “top-six forwards” category given what he’s shown the last two seasons. After scoring 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23, Cozens just hasn’t looked the part for back-to-back seasons, scoring at an 18-goal, 47-point pace since. On top of not scoring much, he’s also struggled defensively.
Cozens is currently a tweener: He’s not quite good enough offensively for the top six and not quite good enough defensively for a shutdown bottom-six role. He is a man without a home, a frustrating thought for a player making $7.1 million for five more years after this one. Even when accounting for cap growth and personal growth, the value of Cozens’ contract clocks in at $6.2 million. At this moment, he’s technically a negative-value asset.
And yet, it’s hard not to be tantalized by that 2022-23 season and the idea that the seventh pick from the 2019 draft has more to give. After seeing other players thrive away from Buffalo, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Cozens figure it out elsewhere. Despite his flaws, Cozens still brings it in transition and is very good at getting pucks out of his zone and into his opponent’s zone with control.
If Cozens can figure things out in-zone, he can be a fantastic player. Perhaps a smart team can fix his issues there, making Cozens worth the gamble. But it’s crucial to understand this isn’t a Sam Reinhart situation and it’s not ‘Buffalo stink’ clouding judgment. Over the past two years, Cozens has been subpar in his own right, and that makes dealing for him risky