2023/2024 NHL/WILD Offseason-Season-Postseason Thread

Sheesh, just a tick over $5M that isnt much. They have 6 FAs to either sign or bring someone else in. Something is going to have to give, they will need to have room for in season call ups due to injury.

CaptainMusky wrote:

Sheesh, just a tick over $5M that isnt much. They have 6 FAs to either sign or bring someone else in. Something is going to have to give, they will need to have room for in season call ups due to injury.

They’ll be fine, They save $2 million from Goose retiring, the Hartman, Zuccy, Foligno extensions only bump their combined caphits up like $1.75ish from this season, Bogo extension adds $400k, Gus and Flower combo is now $1 million cheaper ($3.75 cheaper if they trade Gus) and the cap is also going up $4-5 million as well…they should have like $3-4ish million left after re-signing the RFAs ($7-8ish if they trade Gus)

Any Faber/Rossi/Marat extensions wouldn’t kick in until the 2025/2026 season…

The biggest questions for next season are:

1) How will the goalie rotation work? (Do we keep Gus or trade him)
2) Who is the 6th Defenseman playing with Bogosian? Chisholm/Hunt or do they sign a FA vet?
3) What will they do with Johansson? Play him top6 again or stuff him in the minors (which he would likely decline and thus void his contract) and we play Ohgren instead?
4) What will Yurov’s decision be? if he decides to come over now, does that then put Ohgren in the minors?

Expected 2024/2025 lineup:

Kirill – Ek – Boldy
Zuccy – Rossi – Jojo/Ohgren/Yurov/Hartman
Foligno – Khusnutdinov – Hartman/Ohgren
Letterri – Gaudreau – Shaw/Luccini

Faber – Brodin
Spurgeon – Middleton
Bogosian – Chisholm/Hunt/FA

Flower – GusBus or Wallstedt

I’m happy to have Flower around for another year but man that’s alotta cash for a backup tendy who hasn’t been particularly good in a Wild sweater.

tswoboda wrote:

I’m happy to have Flower around for another year but man that’s alotta cash for a backup tendy who hasn’t been particularly good in a Wild sweater.

Yeah, we were talking about that…I think its gotta be a NHLPA issue or maybe Walsh has other goalie clients who could be negatively impacted from a comp perspective if Flower just took the Vets minimum? it’s not like Flower needs or plays for the paycheck right?

I’m not saying I expected Flower to take a lowball deal. I’m saying $2.5m is over value for how he’s played the last 3 years, and no one is forcing the Wild to sign him

Veterans minimum doesn’t exist in the NHL, it’s not a thing

tswoboda wrote:

Veterans minimum doesn’t exist in the NHL, it’s not a thing

Correct, “league minimum” ($750k) but over 35 can also get incentives added so lets call it Minimum salary with Veteran benefits

I was just thinking at this point of his career, what is the difference between $2.5m and $750k with some incentives added? Why not help the team out from a cap perspective?

Well the incentives would go against the following year’s cap, but that would probably still help the team since they would be done by then.

CaptainMusky wrote:

Well the incentives would go against the following year’s cap, but that would probably still help the team since they would be done by then.

Only if he meets them (depends on what they are) and the Wild doesn’t have the capspace + upto 7.5% over the cap limit in the season they were achieved to pay them out (so next season) Any incentive $ still needing to pay out over the 7.5% rolls over into the following season…

F’ing Crosby with a penalty shot to tie it with 30 seconds left and he’s stopped…

so after the Penguins lost, if the Wild win tonight, they draft 14th…if they lose, they draft 13th…and of course the consensus seems to show this draft has 13 high quality prospects with a drop starting at pick 14…example = #13 Tij Iginla to #14 Adam Jirisec

tswoboda wrote:

I’m happy to have Flower around for another year but man that’s alotta cash for a backup tendy…

Let’s hope it works out that way and he IS a backup tendy. All season. Because we didn’t go too far into the 23/24 season before we were asking “Who’s backing up whom here?”

Given that the Wild in 24/25 are going to be fundamentally the same team as this past season, I really want goaltending NOT to be an issue from Game 1.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

Expected 2024/2025 lineup:

Kirill – Ek – Boldy
Zuccy – Rossi – Jojo/Ohgren/Yurov/Hartman
Foligno – Khusnutdinov – Hartman/Ohgren
Letterri – Gaudreau – Shaw/Luccini

Faber – Brodin
Spurgeon – Middleton
Bogosian – Chisholm/Hunt/FA

Flower – GusBus or Wallstedt

This is kind of depressing, actually. We’re going to need a Miraculous Minnesota Resurrection where multiple somebodies in that lineup go on a Staal-like heater and absolutely tear it up.

Circle that list of 13 high quality prospects and I guarantee at least a couple of them will be available at #14

Tij Iginla would be such a stereotypical Wild pick. He’s in the WHL, where half their draft picks come from, he’s a mid-size center that can play wing, and you just know Billy G would love the idea of drafting Jarome Iginla’s kid

Okay, so putting this out for analysis.

The Buyouts. What would have happened if…

Had the Wild NOT bought out Parise and Suter AND with the following scenario that is roughly based on what P/S did with other teams, what would have happened if…

1. Suter continued to play with his existing contract and was looking like he could play out his contract and there would be no real benefit in buying him out.

2. Parise continued to play from the start of 23/24, but let’s say he went on LTIR for most of this season AND then returned in March and then retired after this season as he will do in Colorado.

Not interested in speculation on performance or impact on locker room / team dynamics. Only salary cap situation.

Where would we be salary cap wise under this scenario?

Would we have been better or worse off if we bought out Paraise after this season ends?

TheFamousGrouse wrote:

tswoboda wrote:
I’m happy to have Flower around for another year but man that’s alotta cash for a backup tendy…

Let’s hope it works out that way and he IS a backup tendy. All season. Because we didn’t go too far into the 23/24 season before we were asking “Who’s backing up whom here?”

Completely agree. Flower played too many games this year, and that’s on Gus. He should really be capped at about 30 games… But at $3.5m and now $2.5m he’s paid like a top backup, #1B. And at that price he needs to be able to cover for a struggling starter. But his play has been that of a $1m true backup, and at 40 years old it’s tough to see that roller coaster going back up hill next season.

Long story short, they wouldn’t have Brock Faber and Liam Ohgren if they didn’t buy Parise out.

TheFamousGrouse wrote:

Had the Wild NOT bought out Parise and Suter AND with the following scenario that is roughly based on what P/S did with other teams, what would have happened if…

Suter is easy, he was replaced with Goose both in the salary cap and in usage – at least to start. Goose for Suter has been an almost 1 for 1 swap. I always said Suter buyout had nothing to do with his play, it was just the only way to get him out of the locker room and Billy G was apparently willing to do whatever it takes to get him out of the locker room. Suter buyout looked bad on paper at the time, and it looks even worse now. But if you buy the idea he was a locker room cancer, there was no other way to get him out other than a buyout.

Parise one is different – his play, usage, and relationship with the coach was a disaster that last season. He was going to be gone that summer one way or another, and they couldn’t find a trade. But if you want to speculate: They were in a cap crunch that summer and if they kept Parise around, they would have had to trade Kevin Fiala. OK great, easy choice. Everyone hated Fiala, right? Well he was coming off a 40 point season, and the next season is when he went off for 85 points or whatever it was. Trade return that summer would have been minimal in comparison. So this is a long way of saying if they didn’t buy Parise out they would not have Brock Faber and Liam Ohgren now.

TheFamousGrouse wrote:

Okay, so putting this out for analysis.

The Buyouts. What would have happened if…

Had the Wild NOT bought out Parise and Suter AND with the following scenario that is roughly based on what P/S did with other teams, what would have happened if…

1. Suter continued to play with his existing contract and was looking like he could play out his contract and there would be no real benefit in buying him out.

2. Parise continued to play from the start of 23/24, but let’s say he went on LTIR for most of this season AND then returned in March and then retired after this season as he will do in Colorado.

Not interested in speculation on performance or impact on locker room / team dynamics. Only salary cap situation.

Where would we be salary cap wise under this scenario?

Would we have been better or worse off if we bought out Paraise after this season ends?

yeah, I’ve asked Russo a few times knowing what we know now, how would Parise and Suter likely played out for the Wild… he never answered…

A big part of the Parise & Suter contracts is that BOTH players would have had to “play ball” with the Wild in terms of retiring early or claiming a career ending injury and staying on LTIR until they could retire (Like Weber & Hossa did) and BillyG burned those bridges to the ground…

The other big part was the perceived locker room issues BOTH brought with them and that’s the biggest factor is why BillyG took the buyout hit…He thought it was better to pay for them to play elsewhere than on the Wild and also keep in mind the Wild did save some capspace over main the buyout period vs had they remained on the team (Parise likely would have been a 3rd or 4th line player making $7.538 a year, Suter a likely 2nd or 3rd D pair making the same)…so there was some short term financial gains in buying them out (although those gains are only like $150k this and next season but then we lose $1.66 million of capspace the next 4 years!)

Flower did go like 10-1-1 at one stretch of the season when Gus was struggling.

Ripjiggen wrote:

Flower did go like 10-1-1 at one stretch of the season when Gus was struggling.

OK and how did his other 30 games go?

Feel like I’m the only Wild fan not giving Flower a pass because he’s a living legend

Ripjiggen wrote:

Flower did go like 10-1-1 at one stretch of the season when Gus was struggling.

are there any online metrics that show how many PP goals Gus and Flower each gave up? With how bad our PK was, those are goals that are tough for a goalie to stop (think of back door tap in’s or point blank shots from the slot) and likely skewed their stats a bit? not saying that’s the only reason for their drop, just curious what the numbers look like…If our defense plays better in front of them, the goalies will be better by default…

I was looking at some stats the other day and Middleton really had a terrible defensive season…him hopefully playing better next year should help…

Agree Middleton was in over his head this season and it showed. He’s a #5 and played most of the season at #2 or #3. Bogo was their #4 after passing through waivers unclaimed

But 65 goalies played 20+ games…

Flower is #61 in goals saved above expected and #51 in save percentage
They’re bringing him back as the 32nd highest paid goalie next year.

Gus is #49 in goals saved above expected and #45 is save percentage
Terrible season for him too, but both numbers better than Flower

tswoboda wrote:

Feel like I’m the only Wild fan not giving Flower a pass because he’s a living legend

I’m not giving him a pass, but I do remember him constantly being under siege most of the time in net and him making alot more unreal saves vs letting in softies where you’re like wtf Flower!…

We know how bad the Wild were this season against the upper teams vs playing well against the lower teams, curious what that Flower vs Gus breakdown looks like? Who got more games against those top teams?

(ps – I don’t want to do the research)

JoeMX1825 wrote:

are there any online metrics that show how many PP goals Gus and Flower each gave up?

sorry, missed this the first time

Flower was #64 in 5v4 goals against average and #64 in 5v4 goals saved above expected and #62 in 5v4 save percentage

Gus was #34 in 5v4 goals against average and #13 in 5v4 goals saved above expected and #15 in 5v4 save percentage

JoeMX1825 wrote:

We know how bad the Wild were this season against the upper teams vs playing well against the lower teams, curious what that Flower vs Gus breakdown looks like? Who got more games against those top teams?

I’m interested in this too, just not exactly sure how to look it up yet

With all the injuries its really hard to lay blame on the goalies for a lot of this with all the D hurt, Spurgeon one of our better D men played 16 games. Those advanced metrics show the goalies underperformed, but I am skeptical it was all on them. Perhaps it was, but some of these advanced stats might need some scrutiny.

tswoboda wrote:

Flower is #61 in goals saved above expected and #51 in save percentage
They’re bringing him back as the 32nd highest paid goalie next year.

Gus is #49 in goals saved above expected and #45 is save percentage
Terrible season for him too, but both numbers better than Flower

I just don’t like goalie metrics because there are so many other factors that can effect them…who’s to say 1 shot on net is easier/harder to stop than another? 50 shots on Goalie A could look a heck of alot different than 50 shots on Goalie B, there’s a stats guy watching the game who “determines” the value of the shot attempts for the Goals Against Expected stat…

Yes, you can probably argue this point with alot of stats and therefor there’s an assumption all other factors even out for all players, but I think Goalie metrics are effected more than others… just my opinion…

I mean you could even argue that Defenseman body size CAN be a factor in goalie stats. The Vegas Golden Knights defense that averages 6’2 and 210 lbs will block more shots on net just by taking up more space than the Wild’s smaller defenseman body size average, more shots are going to get to the goalie against the Wild vs Knights…

CaptainMusky wrote:

With all the injuries its really hard to lay blame on the goalies for a lot of this with all the D hurt, Spurgeon one of our better D men played 16 games. Those advanced metrics show the goalies underperformed, but I am skeptical it was all on them. Perhaps it was, but some of these advanced stats might need some scrutiny.

It’s not that hard, at least not for me anyway. The goalies were bad, really bad. Goals saved above expected separates goalie play from team play.

Rip shared a Russo tweet a couple weeks ago that showed if the Wild got league average goaltending they’d be a 100+ point team this year. But with the awful goaltending they are missing the playoffs.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

there’s a stats guy watching the game who “determines” the value of the shot attempts for the Goals Against Expected stat…

There’s no stat guy watching assigning an expected goal value lol wtf

tswoboda wrote:

Rip shared a Russo tweet a couple weeks ago that showed if the Wild got league average goaltending they’d be a 100+ point team this year. But with the awful goaltending they are missing the playoffs.

Yeah I remember that they were like something like 18 less wins than expected or something like that. I just am skeptical of how the analytics accounts for this stat. Most of the others make a lot of sense.

If you guys actually learned what expected goals is maybe you wouldn’t be so skeptical of it

wtf – this is like my 5th attempt to post this reply….

yeah, my bad, I saw the part of the calculation explanation that said the shot on net is “given a value” and assumed it was a human giving it…but there’s gotta be a human inputting the data right? Or is there some elaborate camera system in each arena that calculates shot distance and angle, sticks in the way, etc?

This is the page I was looking at, granted its a few years old – https://thehockeywriters.com/evaluating-analyzing-goaltenders-changes/

tswoboda wrote:

If you guys actually learned what expected goals is maybe you wouldn’t be so skeptical of it

I know what it is, but that doesnt make me less skeptical.