2023/2024 NHL/WILD Offseason-Season-Postseason Thread

Kirill’s Dad and Brother are in town to watch him play in person, so expect 4+ goals by the Thrill against the lowly Sharks…

JoeMX1825 wrote:

I thought it was funny how Lazerus starts the debate by telling Russo he can’t mention Bedard’s +/-…. so Bedard is a -37 and Lazerus says its because the Hawks are so historically bad, yet no mention that 2nd in goals and 4th in points on the team Jason Dickinson is a +3 playing every game sofar this historically bad season…

Not gonna lie the Bedard/Faber +/- thing drives me nuts. It’s 2024, there’s a dozen better ways to show Bedard is bad godawful at defense than +/-. And not just talking numbers or stats, watch one game and it’s obvious. But here we are leading the charge in the Brock Faber for Calder campaign with freaking +/-; embarrassing for the State of Hockey

The ironic/funny/sad part is +/- is the original “analytic”… and yet the only people still using it also make fun of or don’t believe in “analytics”. Analytics are just stats, and if you don’t understand them then you call them analytics.

tswoboda wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JoeMX1825 wrote:</div>
I thought it was funny how Lazerus starts the debate by telling Russo he can’t mention Bedard’s +/-…. so Bedard is a -37 and Lazerus says its because the Hawks are so historically bad, yet no mention that 2nd in goals and 4th in points on the team Jason Dickinson is a +3 playing every game sofar this historically bad season…

Not gonna lie the Bedard/Faber +/- thing drives me nuts. It’s 2024, there’s a dozen better ways to show Bedard is bad godawful at defense than +/-. And not just talking numbers or stats, watch one game and it’s obvious. But here we are leading the charge in the Brock Faber for Calder campaign with freaking +/-; embarrassing for the State of Hockey

The ironic/funny/sad part is +/- is the original “analytic”… and yet the only people still using it also make fun of or don’t believe in “analytics”. Analytics are just stats, and if you don’t understand them then you call them analytics.

The stat is being used (by Faber fans) because it “looks” god awful for Bedard, so of course they are going to exploit it… especially for the casual fans it’s an easy to understand stat to look at that paints a blurry but not perfect picture of how one is playing even strength.

Yes, things like empty net goals given up will unfairly hurt players +/- who are more likely to be on the ice vs just 5-5 (the better players) and when a player steps on/off the ice and were they even involved in the actual goal scoring play should make a difference, but i’d be willing to bet even the best analytic stats have holes that can be poked into them (good & bad puck deflections, pipes hit, etc)…The assumption is that these oddball scenarios and goals where a player was/wasn’t even involved in the play likely even out over time…

If I cared to do the work, it would be very interesting to look at the 71 Blackhawks games sofar this season and figure out why Jason Dickinson is a +3 with 31 points scored (2 PP points) and Bedard is a -37 with 55 points scored (18 were PP points). Their average TOI is different by 3 minutes and most of that is likely from more special teams play for Bedard if I had to guess…Hawks are middle of the league with 13 empty net goals given up…i’d assume Bedard was on the ice for alot of those…

JoeMX1825 wrote:

i’d be willing to bet even the best analytic stats have holes that can be poked into them

I can poke pin holes in anything but and not at all saying any one stat or number is perfect or standalone way to judge a player. But people keep pointing to +/- like it’s the smoking gun for Bedard being bad

JoeMX1825 wrote:

paints a blurry but not perfect picture of how one is playing even strength.

+/- is not an even strength stat but I guess it fools many into thinking it is… great example here

Sticking with the current IDO theme it’s like comparing FFS to a clip on depth bomb

it’s generally an even strength stat with a few exceptions but when the players aren’t benefitted from the situation…I pointed out how it can unfairly effect players via examples like empty net goals given up and when & where they are on the ice when the goal is scored, but those can even out…

and as I said, it’s used against Bedard because its a hell of alot easier to explain to casual fans vs some of the complicated analytic metrics which basically point to the same conclusion, Bedard and his linemates play defense like an over 50 Beerleague team… I’ve watched most of his games when able and the kid spends more time cruising the neutral zone than the back ref…Luke Richardson tried to punish him for doing it and that went nowhere, can’t bench your golden boy very long before Rocky calls down from the owners suite…

tswoboda wrote:

Sticking with the current IDO theme it’s like comparing FFS to a clip on depth bomb

Come on who did that? LOL

OK fine maybe Lowrance green box is a better example
And the green box still paints a blurry picture of what’s below you but that doesn’t mean anyone is still using them

Watching the Vegas vs Predators game…

If you could go back 2 years ago knowing what you know now would you trade for Jack Eichel?

The biggest question marks with him at the time were his neck and attitude, both turned out not to be issues and he was a key piece of their Cup win…

Depends on the trade but comparing to what Vegas gave up…

Young NHL forward with term… Eriksson Ek
Top forward prospect… Rossi or Boldy
2022 1st round pick… Ohgren
2023 2nd round pick… Heidt

I’d pass

tswoboda wrote:

Depends on the trade but comparing to what Vegas gave up…

Young NHL forward with term… Eriksson Ek
Top forward prospect… Rossi or Boldy
2022 1st round pick… Ohgren
2023 2nd round pick… Heidt

I’d pass

Yeah, the Wild’s players would have been alot better for Buffalo, I think the Wild’s offer would have been less due to the quality of players and Ek & Rossi are centers…

Here’s how it officially worked out:

Golden Knights Acquire:
Jack Eichel
2023 third-round pick (Mathieu Cataford)

Sabres Acquire:
Alex Tuch
Peyton Krebs
2022 first-round pick (Noah Östlund)
2023 second-round pick traded to Wild for Jordan Greenway (Riley Heidt)

Go back and look what your opinion on Eriksson Ek was in 2021… 3rd line center at best. Rossi was coming off myocarditus, but I used him because Ek was far below Tuch in 2021. There’s no other play in the Wild system that would have compared to Tuch. Throw Khusnutdinov in for Rossi if you really need to.

So Ek, Khus, Ohgren, and Heidt

Would have been forced to include Dumba or other major salary just to make the money work as well, but that’s not an asset.

Of course Vegas is going to be the first team to outright beat Nashville in a month… tough team to be chasing down the stretch.

tswoboda wrote:

Of course Vegas is going to be the first team to outright beat Nashville in a month… tough team to be chasing down the stretch.

It appears I spoke too soon

Lol, worst outcome for the Wild, crazy comeback by the Preds… why risk that offsides challenge?

I think the Preds will win it in OT

Good Athletic article on Riley Heidt today, it really sounds like the Wild wants him to force their hand and keep him in the NHL next season…this will be a huge summer for him putting on some muscle…hopefully he gets on the Rossi plan…

Russo mentioned he and Smith have a big story tomorrow on what a Faber extension could look like, most are thinking 8 x $8aav, if GMBG can somehow get under that, its a steal imo…I think the Faber camp will want a 7 year deal so his next one is signed before he turns 30…

Wild point to Sanderson at 8×8 and Faber’s camp points to McAvoy at 8×9.5

Jake Sanderson is the perfect comparable all things considered

tswoboda wrote:

Wild point to Sanderson at 8×8 and Faber’s camp points to McAvoy at 8×9.5

Jake Sanderson is the perfect comparable all things considered

yeah, I think Sanderson will be the floor comp as well, maybe Faber gets $8.25 x 7…McAvoy had a 3 x $4.9 bridge deal before his 8 x $9.5

IDK the Sanderson contract was generally regarded as a fair to slight overpay at the time he signed it. On paper Sanderson and Faber are practically the same person. Hopefully see them play together in the Olympics or 4-nation tournament

Wild moved upto a 7.4% chance of making the playoffs today after Vegas only got 1 point last night…
This will likely increase again Friday morning as the Wild bask in their likely win against the JV Sharks and whatever Vegas does in Winnipeg Thursday night, but don’t get your hopes up…

2% chance on The Athletic

Always knew you were a closet MoneyPuck disciple Joe

tswoboda wrote:

2% chance on The Athletic

Always knew you were a closet MoneyPuck disciple Joe

google is my friend…

Couple of classic Dumba mistakes in this Boston vs Lightning game…. One resulted in a Boston goal…Tanner Jeannot just popped Trent Frederick with a quick uppercut… rest of the league probably happy with that.

good Wild contract overview I grabbed from Russo’s Faber article this morning, shows who has contract protection as well..

I didn’t realize Spurgeon only has a 10 team no trade clause from now on…Brodin has no trade protection the last 3 years of his deal…

Hartman’s NMC switches to a 15 team no trade clause after next season, Foligno’s the same in 2 years…

Looking at that contract chart, The Wild will have $2.1 million + Whatever the Salary cap rises to (most think $4 million) so potentially $6.1 million under the cap. They will need to sign a backup goalie if they don’t roll with Wallstedt ($925k) and Flower retires. They’ll also likely want to re-sign RFA’s Chisholm and Shaw and then maybe Mermis, Lucchini & Beckman (who I think they either trade at the draft or cut ties with him)

I think Merrill is likely traded this offseason potentially gaining the Wild an additional few hundred thousand is somebody like Hunt replaces him…

Yurov with 2 goals in today’s KHL Quarterfinals playoff game 5, his team is 1 win away from the semi’s

If you could ask Bill Guerin one question today, what would it be?

wormdunker wrote:

If you could ask Bill Guerin one question today, what would it be?

What’s the plan with Yurov next season? Has a decision been made?

wormdunker wrote:

If you could ask Bill Guerin one question today, what would it be?

Why didn’t you use the 2 years of cap he’ll to bottom out for draft picks?

wormdunker wrote:

If you could ask Bill Guerin one question today, what would it be?

What are you going to do to keep Kevin Fiala? I always loved that one!

Tom schmitt wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>wormdunker wrote:</div>
If you could ask Bill Guerin one question today, what would it be?

Why didn’t you use the 2 years of cap he’ll to bottom out for draft picks?

The short answer would have been to trade KK.