2022 MN WILD/NHL THREAD

From Hockey Wilderness

The Minnesota Wild are sitting pretty on top of the Central Division and are certainly going to attempt a deep playoff run, when it gets there. But before that, they are eyeing up any trade possibilities to improve this team, and the latest rumor is snatching Vancouver Canucks forward J.T. Miller from the team that is in a terrible downward spiral.

According to The Province, the Wild have called the Canucks about acquiring the 28-year-old forward. After this season, Miller has one year remaining on his contract that carries a cap hit of $5.25 million—but at least it wouldn’t be a hypothetical pure rental trade and a team that is in desperate need of a solidifying top-six forward, will get that for two full (potential) runs in the postseason.

In the same report, Kevin Fiala’s name was brought up as the potential cost for Miller, and with his upcoming restricted free agency, head coach Dean Evason benching him at points during a recent game, and just the general apathy that the management team has for the player, a potential trade before this year’s March 21 trade deadline. The Province even goes as far as to hypothesize Fiala and their 2022 second-round pick for Miller. That is a proposition that will no doubt be debated amongst the two fan bases and will result in a clashing of heads.

The point is, for the Wild to sacrifice just three years in age, for a player that would be their best offensive option at the center position (oh yeah, he plays center as well as wing) and has the exact same amount of contractual control as Fiala. Both Miller and Fiala are going to be heading to unrestricted free agency in 2023, and with the team’s evident hesitancy to commit long-term to him, Fiala will most likely be heading out of Minnesota at that time anyway.

Before Vancouver, Miller was slotted as a depth player on the Tampa Bay Lightning and was still able to put up 47 points in 74 games while averaging 14:40 TOI. As soon as he moved to the Canucks, his offense exploded with the larger role—with 137 points in 141 games, Miller is certainly able to put some pucks in the back of the net.

If it is indeed Fiala that moves to Vancouver, then it wouldn’t necessarily be a bet on trading the typical prospect or young player for a veteran, but just getting a much more established player and solid option down the middle, for a guy that has either been the best player on the planet or completely invisible during his time in Minnesota. It’s unfortunate that what the Wild have done so far with Fiala—not giving him any sort of financial security and keeping him on a short leash—really spell out an inevitable trade.

Miller would be the best option to really go for it and hopefully not giving up the future of this team. Giving this team two solid years of reliable offense is good enough reason to really target a trade.

He is listed everywhere I looked at playing in the middle with Garland and Podkolzin but I honestly am in the same boat as you that I have not watched a lot of Canuck hockey this year. Looking at his stats on hockey reference he is definitely taking his fair share of face offs.
Which he is at 57 percent currently.
I for one am not on the Fiala hate bandwagon.

I guess if you’re the Wild and you want to have the last laugh bury Fiala in Vancouver where they are a complete mess. He’s not going to have much chance to make you look like it was a bad trade on that team.

I remember him as a Ranger and Lightning player and then obviously watched him in the bubble series vs the Wild a few years ago. He was sort of a late bloomer, but found his game 4-5 years ago and has been very consistent ever since. I’ve always watched him play center, he’s a great faceoff guy and plays with a little sandpaper to his game, I would grade his playmaking skills at above average and he’s not afraid to get to the dirty areas to score. I see him as the 1C this year, possibly sliding to 2C next year if Rossi takes off. He plays a similar game to Ryan O’Reilly, but a level below in his playmaking.

As the article mentions any trade including Fiala will require an extra kicker (high round draft pick (not a 1st) or a good prospect (perhaps a Ryan O’Rourke) Vancouver has no cap space for another contract player) from the Wild’s side to get any deal done as Miller is a premium Center position and has a locked in $5.25 caphit vs Fiala’s maximum $6.25 million arbitration offer ()5.1 minimum) next year

Boldy will need a top 6 wing slot to play in now and perhaps Beckman next year as well, so swapping a wing for a center is desired…
at a minimum Miller gives you legit center depth until Rossi/Khusnidhinov are ready to take over, you could also extend him after next season at a likely acceptable 2C aav if he plays well too…

The Knights jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first eight minutes against the Blues. The Blues flipped the tables on them after that and dominated the rest of the night. Final 5-2 Blues. Blues are going to be hard to deal with again this year.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

Fiala’s minimum $6.25 million arbitration offer next year

Fiala QO is $5.1 million.

The whole premise of the trade is filling a position of need, center. Miller’s most common linemates (by a huge margin) the 2 previous years are EP and Boeser. Same for this season too but he does have significant time with Garland, Podkolzin, and Hoglander too. EP is a center for sure, so how is Miller playing much center if that’s his most common linemate? So is Miller just taking the draws for EP or what’s the deal there?

Ice Cap wrote:

I guess if you’re the Wild and you want to have the last laugh bury Fiala in Vancouver where they are a complete mess. He’s not going to have much chance to make you look like it was a bad trade on that team.

I really hope Billy G isn’t making trades out of spite. The only reason to make a trade should be to make the team better.

Ice Cap wrote:

The Knights jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first eight minutes against the Blues. The Blues flipped the tables on them after that and dominated the rest of the night. Final 5-2 Blues. Blues are going to be hard to deal with again this year.

Blues owned the Wild last year…I can’t stand that team. Their core is aging but have a couple young studs in Kyrou and Thomas.

I don’t think BG is making trades out of spite but I don’t think he minds making this one if they can make it happen and burying Fiala in Vancouver is a bit of a bonus as it’s a place where Fiala will be a lot less likely to throw any egg on BG’s face say as if he went to Carolina or some other quality team.

As the wheel turns Fiala could wind up somewhere else and wind up biting us in the a$$. You just never know. But of course he’s not gone yet. Maybe it don’t happen and the team and Fiala have a come to Jesus meeting and the band stays together.

All the Blues need to own us is Brandon Saad. He’s been a one man army against the Wild his entire career.

Ripjiggen wrote:

I for one am not on the Fiala hate bandwagon.

I dont think you have to be on the hate Fiala bandwagon to like the thought of trading for Miller. I like Fiala even with his flaws, but I would do that proposed trade any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I dont think you have to be on the hate Fiala bandwagon to like the thought of trading for Miller. I like Fiala even with his flaws, but I would do that proposed trade any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
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Just project the potential roster out the next 3-6 years (I agree alot can happen in 2 years let alone 6) but there’s just no room for a big Fiala contract when you have guys like Boldy, Beckman, Pitlick (maybe?) who can fill that top 6 wing slot for a fraction of the caphit…the team would much rather designate that capspace for a #1-2 center solution…I do agree that the trade makes less sense if you CAN’T get a good center (like a JT Miller)

Ice Cap wrote:

I don’t think BG is making trades out of spite but I don’t think he minds making this one if they can make it happen and burying Fiala in Vancouver is a bit of a bonus as it’s a place where Fiala will be a lot less likely to throw any egg on BG’s face say as if he went to Carolina or some other quality team.

If this trade would happen, what would be more likely to leave egg on our faces would be the draft pick(s) that Vancouver would get as part of the deal.

Vancouver has all the leverage in this deal, they are going nowhere, there’s no pending UFA urgency to get something out of Miller before the deadline.

They also know that a) MN is desperate for depth at center and faceoff percentage. b) Fiala is in a slump and even if a lot of it is attitude-induced, they will use it as “he may never come back to his past numbers” leverage. c) MN likely will be playoff-bound and Vancouver is not, so the pressure is on the Wild to seal the deal. d)Finally, they know our cap situation and how unlikely it is we could do a new Fiala deal AND satisfy our other needs, so basically they know we have give up Fiala sooner or later.

Vancouver is going to know they have the leverage and demand Fiala and an R1 pick for Miller, or they will want Fiala + R2 + prospect.

No way would I want us to give up an R1 pick and Fiala for Miller. Major egg-on-face potential here that would haunt us for years and BG knows you just cannot give out R1s like candy the way the Wild have done in the past, you need that ELC for talent and because it’s the only way you can have a competitive team under the cap.

Russo has not made mention of this so it may not even be a serious discussion. I also read speculation that Vancouver may want Addison or Beckman in addition to Fiala and a second rounder. If that’s the case I say make whatever peace you can with Fiala and ride the season out. Fiala’s trade value will most likely rise as his numbers go up during the season.

I personally do not view the Wild as legit Cup contenders this year. If all goes right they may make it to the second round and I’m not sure a JT Miller is enough to push them past that. Let Fiala’s trade value rise and wait for Rossi. We’re winning now no need to do something just to do it.

Good points Grouse!

It’s obviously going to come down to how much value Vancouver sees in Fiala, they could easily flip Miller at the deadline and get a likely late 1R pick back, but perhaps they like the idea of Petterson passing to Fiala long term vs Boesser? Their stats are pretty comparable to each other and you can’t argue against Boesser getting alot more talent to play with vs Fiala…While I don’t think a R1 pick is anywhere in the Wild’s plans to give up, Vancouver would be dumb not to initially ask for it, Fiala is about 3.5 years younger than Miller, so that will be factored in a bit in the Wild’s offer argument back at Vancouver…If we’re projecting/hoping the Wild finishes the season as one of the top 10 teams, then you’re just risking a late round pick (2nd rounder would be in the 50’s pick)… I’d be willing to give that up with Fiala to solve our center problem the next 1 1/2 seasons, maybe longer if he’s re-signed after Dumba’s caphit becomes available…

I’m not sure if Beckman is untouchable in a trade, It’s obvious the staff loves him, but we’re talking about potentially getting a high 2C player back who would slot into our 1C and solve our team’s Center problem instantly, especially next year and beyond… You need to give value to get value…Vancouver wants to feel like they are winning in the trade as well…

I read an interesting stat yesterday that looked at the projected team goalie play ranking done at the start of the season vs 18 or so games in and the Wild’s goalie play sofar has ranked #29 out of 32 teams…obviously lots of factors that go into that stat but bottom line is that the Wild’s goalies are letting in alot more goals then they were projected to sofar…The projections were based off career numbers, so one would expect them to improve by a good margin the rest of the season…

Ice Cap wrote:

Russo has not made mention of this so it may not even be a serious discussion.

Russo absolutely has talked about this. It was during one of the game broadcasts. He said watch for Vancouver to make changes and could the wild go after horvat or Miller. Said Miller makes more sense and even eluded to one of the pieces from the wild would be Fiala.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

I read an interesting stat yesterday that looked at the projected team goalie play ranking done at the start of the season vs 18 or so games in and the Wild’s goalie play sofar has ranked #29 out of 32 teams…obviously lots of factors that go into that stat but bottom line is that the Wild’s goalies are letting in alot more goals then they were projected to sofar…The projections were based off career numbers, so one would expect them to improve by a good margin the rest of the season…

I was referring to this yesterday as well. It’s where I saw the stat of like 10 goals expected above avg which is terrible. Only 2 teams are worse. Our defense rates very highly but they aren’t making key saves. They did also comment that this stat may be off a bit by the way the Xcel stats person measures distance. They say they are consistently off by a few feet and that makes a difference.

CaptainMusky wrote:

They did also comment that this stat may be off a bit by the way the Xcel stats person measures distance. They say they are consistently off by a few feet and that makes a difference.

This was a big fancy stats theory that was more or less debunked.

The Wild were consistently among best in the league at expected goals against and especially at home. So it was hypothesized that it was only because the Xcel stat keepers record shots as further from the net than they actually are, resulting in a lower EXPECTED goals number. The thing the nerds forgot to account for is that the wild are also always among best in ACTUAL goals against at home. Over the last 3 seasons, the wild give up 0.5 fewer expected goals at home, and they give up 0.4 fewer actual goals at home. That’s a negligible difference.

So yeah, all this to say the Wild goalies are not good. Cam was league average last year and we thought he was amazing. This year he’s been worse.

Weird thing about Cam this year is he gives up the soft goals early in the game and then he makes some huge saves late or in OT to keep them in it. So he’s been really clutch but he’s also been a big reason why they are always coming from behind in the first place. As fans we tend to remember the big saves in OT more than the softies in the 1st period so we end up thinking he’s better than he is.

Talbot imo is not a 60 plus game goalie. They need to keep working Kaako in he’s playing fairly well.

This come from behind desperate play in the last few minutes is fun to watch but is not sustainable for long. Uses up a lot of energy and emotion early. Playoff style hockey in the first 20 games will catch up to you. I’m not a big deep in the weeds stats person. I always felt that was for the fantasy nerds and gamblers.

Ice Cap wrote:

Playoff style hockey in the first 20 games will catch up to you. I’m not a big deep in the weeds stats person. I always felt that was for the fantasy nerds and gamblers.

That Panthers game had all the eye test of a playoff style game. Man was that a fun one to watch. Considering how tough FLA has been at home to be able to go toe to toe with them was fun to see.

Back to the wild contacting Vancouver. I am sure multiple teams have as the sharks are swirling on a team that has mgmt issues. I don’t see why the Canucks would want to trade Miller for Fiala and a late second. That would be a sure fire way to lose your job. So yes I am sure the wild are calling to ask but no way does that trade scenario make any sense for Vancouver.

I also don’t think any of our prospects are sure fire bets to be better than Fiala when he is on his game. So to say look what it’s going to cost to sign beckman, Boldy, Addison and Rossi is a little premature. To me Rossi seems like the only for sure untouchable and that has more to do with the position he plays.

Ripjiggen wrote:

I also don’t think any of our prospects are sure fire bets to be better than Fiala when he is in his game.

True, that will remain to be seen, but we simply cannot afford him down the road either. While what was suggested as a trade to Vancouver may not be enough, I bet its close. Vancouver doesnt have a ton of cap space either so getting some picks back would be desirable as well.

Ice Cap wrote:

Russo has not made mention of this so it may not even be a serious discussion. I also read speculation that Vancouver may want Addison or Beckman in addition to Fiala and a second rounder. If that’s the case I say make whatever peace you can with Fiala and ride the season out. Fiala’s trade value will most likely rise as his numbers go up during the season.

I personally do not view the Wild as legit Cup contenders this year. If all goes right they may make it to the second round and I’m not sure a JT Miller is enough to push them past that. Let Fiala’s trade value rise and wait for Rossi. We’re winning now no need to do something just to do it.

Good points Grouse!

I didn’t see Montreal as a cup contender last year either.

Gigi sounds twice as bad watching the game replay a few days later…

CaptainMusky wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ripjiggen wrote:</div>
I also don’t think any of our prospects are sure fire bets to be better than Fiala when he is in his game.

True, that will remain to be seen, but we simply cannot afford him down the road either. While what was suggested as a trade to Vancouver may not be enough, I bet its close. Vancouver doesnt have a ton of cap space either so getting some picks back would be desirable as well.

They can but would have to move Dumba. Here is projected. Yes this doesn’t show the following years of the cap buyouts but gives you some idea and fun to mess around

Ripjiggen wrote:

I also don’t think any of our prospects are sure fire bets to be better than Fiala when he is on his game.

That’s the danger with with Fiala. He’s a 70 point player that’s disguised as a 40 point player for half the season and a 100 player the other half.

I think there’s an unfortunate expectation that guys putting up big numbers in the AHL will translate that straight to the NHL. Kaprizov coming over in his prime has put some tough expectations on the next group of prospects.

Spurgeon out “week to week” soooo… anywhere from 3 to 10 games?? Really hope they get Addison a bunch of games and PP time but sounds like Benn is back in tomorrow.

Ripjiggen wrote:

They can but would have to move Dumba. Here is projected. Yes this doesn’t show the following years of the cap buyouts but gives you some idea and fun to mess around

How did they get Boston’s goalie?!?!

That one I am not sure about 😂but what will Kappo cost?
It is not super accurate I am sure but it is kind of interesting to lay it out this way as well.

That’s good news on spurg.

Touché on Montreal comment Ripjiggen not sure anyone did.

Ice Cap wrote:

Touché on Montreal comment Ripjiggen not sure anyone did.

Honestly my only reason I say this is I think the west doesn’t have a dominant team/s yet like the east seems to have.
I mean will the avalanche finally be what everyone expected. TBD.
Vegas on paper when healthy looks ridiculous but that is TBD.
Edmonton I mean we all have seen MCD and company falter multiple times.
Calgary who knows.
Blues???
Every team especially in the west has some weak spot.

Ripjiggen wrote:

Honestly my only reason I say this is I think the west doesn’t have a dominant team/s yet like the east seems to have.
I mean will the avalanche finally be what everyone expected. TBD.
Vegas on paper when healthy looks ridiculous but that is TBD.
Edmonton I mean we all have seen MCD and company falter multiple times.
Calgary who knows.

The west didn’t even have a team in the Stanley Cup Final last year. An eastern conference team won the freaking Western Conference Final trophy.