2022 MN WILD/NHL THREAD

Ice Cap wrote:

I’m not a numbers stat guy like you guys are but I know what I see.

That’s kinda what I’m getting at here. There’s no metric to track specific face off stats other than win/loss percentage overall.

Losing one at center ice or in the neutral zone counts towards the overall metric, but in reality it plays no role in the outcome of the game. Whereas losing one in the offensive zone with the goalie pulled at the end of regulation could directly result in a win/loss or at least a scoring chance. Its all the same faceoff percentage in the end even though some make a difference and some don’t.

Just google it. There are tons of stats and articles out there in winning percentage to goals for that stat people put together in reguards to face offs. I will post some when I have more time. The overwhelming consensus is it is not that important.

Yes individual draws can be in important end of game situations, and I am not saying the wild can’t or shouldn’t try to get better. Over time or a season however there is not correlation with face off percentage and goals for or against or wins.

Ripjiggen wrote:

Just google it. There are tons of stats and articles out there in winning percentage to goals for that stat people put together in reguards to face offs. I will post some when I have more time. The overwhelming consensus is it is not that important.

Yes individual draws can be in important end of game situations, and I am not saying the wild can’t or shouldn’t try to get better. Over time or a season however there is not correlation with face off percentage and goals for or against or wins.

i’m surprised the advanced stat sites haven’t broken faceoff % down between 5-5 and Special Teams draws at the very least…I’d love to see that data…

It just stands to reason for me that there is a tipping point in that percentage that when you are as bad as the Wild it does impact you’re overall game in a negative way.

I’m not saying faceoffs don’t matter, or at least that’s not my intent. I’m just saying it falls way down the priority list. The idea that faceoff percentage is something the Wild, or any team, need to address via trade is ludicrous. There’s a lot more important stuff to worry about. Being good at draws is a luxury, not a need.

Few more numbers to put things in perspective: Wild are 5th worst in the league at 47.3%. The 5th best team is at 53.5%. There’s roughly 55-60 draws taken in a game so lets just assume 60. If the Wild went from 5th worst to 5th best, that equates to 3.72 more face off wins per game. 4 more faceoff wins per game. FOUR

JoeMX1825 wrote:

i’m surprised the advanced stat sites haven’t broken faceoff % down between 5-5 and Special Teams draws at the very least…I’d love to see that data…

Just because you haven’t found it and read it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Like Rip said it’s been hashed out in every which way by all different kinds of numbers people.

tswoboda wrote:

Just because you haven’t found it and read it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Like Rip said it’s been hashed out in every which way by all different kinds of numbers people.

I would bet JFresh or EvolvingHOckey do this, but I believe you have to pay to see it.

tswoboda wrote:

I’m not saying faceoffs don’t matter, or at least that’s not my intent. I’m just saying it falls way down the priority list. The idea that faceoff percentage is something the Wild, or any team, need to address via trade is ludicrous. There’s a lot more important stuff to worry about. Being good at draws is a luxury, not a need.

Few more numbers to put things in perspective: Wild are 5th worst in the league at 47.3%. The 5th best team is at 53.5%. There’s roughly 55-60 draws taken in a game so lets just assume 60. If the Wild went from 5th worst to 5th best, that equates to 3.72 more face off wins per game. 4 more faceoff wins per game. FOUR

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JoeMX1825 wrote:</div>
i’m surprised the advanced stat sites haven’t broken faceoff % down between 5-5 and Special Teams draws at the very least…I’d love to see that data…

Just because you haven’t found it and read it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Like Rip said it’s been hashed out in every which way by all different kinds of numbers people.

nobody is saying go out and find the best faceoff guy irregardless of how else he plays, but we should definately look for the skillset and prefer that player over somebody without it but is maybe a better skater or bigger size…That’s why I mentioned somebody like a Paul Stasney could fit the need…it’s not about the number of faceoffs you win, its about when you win them…right now we have a hard time doing either…this is not a new issue for the Wild, they’ve always had issues with draws, is that due to an Organizational lack of focus? lack of skillset with our centers? (outside of Koivu)

CaptainMusky wrote:

I would bet JFresh or EvolvingHOckey do this, but I believe you have to pay to see it.

I remember reading (actually more like skimming and looking a charts) a 20some page report on it a couple years ago. I wanna say there was maybe even a university that was involved in it. Regardless, there’s a ton of research out there with supporting data if you want to look for it.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

this is not a new issue for the Wild, they’ve always had issues with draws, is that due to an Organizational lack of focus? lack of skillset with our centers? (outside of Koivu)

I notice that a lot of times the wings dont win the battles a lot of times after the puck is dropped. There seemed to be quite a few of those scenarios in last night’s game and I even commented about it. Its not solely on the center to win draws. If they tie up the other center, then its the wings job to retrieve the puck.
We talked last year about the faceoff challenges. Id like it to be much better, but in reality there are more important things to worry about like staying healthy.

tswoboda wrote:

hat’s why I mentioned somebody like a Paul Stasney could fit the need…it’s not about the number of faceoffs you win, its about when you win them…right now we have a hard time doing either

So use Statsny as the example. If they get him and use him as face-off guy, does that mean Ek is no longer out there 6v5 and PP1 and to start OT? Someone has to come off to make room for the face-off guy. Last year they did this with Bonino bugged the crap outta me.

Or are you thinking strictly for 5v6? Or D-zone defending a lead in general?

JoeMX1825 wrote:

i’m surprised the advanced stat sites haven’t broken faceoff % down between 5-5 and Special Teams draws at the very least…I’d love to see that data…

I think I completely misunderstood what you were asking. This data is easily found.
Bad overall
Bad at 5v5
Average at PP
Average at 6v5
Cratered at PK
Cratered at 5v6

tswoboda wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JoeMX1825 wrote:</div>
i’m surprised the advanced stat sites haven’t broken faceoff % down between 5-5 and Special Teams draws at the very least…I’d love to see that data…

I think I completely misunderstood what you were asking. This data is easily found.
Bad overall
Bad at 5v5
Average at PP
Average at 6v5
Cratered at PK
Cratered at 5v6

yeah, that’s what I was looking for, is there any way to take the Wilds top 1 or 2 guys and compare them with other teams? I say top 2, because it’s pointless to include somebody who’s technically at 75% only because he won 3 of the 4 total draws he’s taken…

tswoboda wrote:

So use Statsny as the example. If they get him and use him as face-off guy, does that mean Ek is no longer out there 6v5 and PP1 and to start OT? Someone has to come off to make room for the face-off guy. Last year they did this with Bonino bugged the crap outta me.

Or are you thinking strictly for 5v6? Or D-zone defending a lead in general?

it’s a risk reward scenario, obviously it weighs heavier when in the defending zone and the center can more easy change as his team breaks up the ice and dumps it in. In the offensive zone, yes it can get dicey and the situation will likely determine the decision…you can look at it this way, it makes no difference who’s on the ice if you lose the draw and the puck is cleared out of the zone anyways (at that point the center could line change for the more offensive player) If you win the draw, in this scenario, the lesser skilled player who took the draw could be a screen guy in front of the net, that’s typically how Stasny is used anyways, I specifically remember Philip Daneault doing this in last years cup run…
Obviously in a perfect world Ek would get alot better at draws as he’s likely the guy to be playing in both offensive & defensive situations (he obviously hurt his hand last night early on blocking a shot, so that likely explains his bad numbers last night) Hartman doesn’t even look like he tries anymore, and while Sturm seems to have the better of the stats, every big draw i’ve seen him take he’s lost clean…

What you’re describing is called FOGO (face off, get off) and a few teams are using it for starting OT. Carolina does it with J-Staal. Wild should do it in OT with Ek swapped out for Zuccy if he wins the draw. Win the draw and go straight to the bench.

The powerplay part you bring up is exactly what the Wild did with Bonino last year and is the perfect example for why I hate it. Ek leads the team in PP goals this year and didn’t get any PP time last year because he sucks at draws and Bonino was good at draws. Wild won a lot more PP draws last season but are scoring more PP goals this season. Hmmm… which of those is more important?

tswoboda wrote:

Wild won a lot more PP draws last season but are scoring more PP goals this season. Hmmm… which of those is more important?

I’d like to take a wild guess on this one.

tswoboda wrote:

Wild won a lot more PP draws last season but are scoring more PP goals this season. Hmmm… which of those is more important?

I’d say Boldy has a big chunk of that credit… The PP was in shambles before he got here…

No doubt Boldy has been a difference maker on the PP, but almost all of Ek’s PP goals came B.B. (before boldy). His goals are disgusting, but it was really the only thing working for them until recently.

tswoboda wrote:

What you’re describing is called FOGO (face off, get off) and a few teams are using it for starting OT. Carolina does it with J-Staal. Wild should do it in OT with Ek swapped out for Zuccy if he wins the draw. Win the draw and go straight to the bench.

The OT scenario is completely different, 3 on 3 is all about getting your best skilled players on the ice and maintaining possesion. The idea of doing that on the powerplay is not an option ANY team will do, if they win the draw the center isn’t going to skate out of the zone for a line change while the rest of the team plays 4-4 in the offensive zone…they’ll likely just plop themselves near the crease, let the skilled guys do their thing…if the puck is cleared out of the zone, then you would obviously swap that player off the ice…

Again what’s the point of having Ek on the ice over Bonnino (last years example) if he just loses the draw and they spend 20 seconds retrieving it skating it back into the zone and attempt another zone entry (which onlyseems to work about 50% of the time) It’s better to just put your best faceoff guy out there and see if you can maintain in-zone possesion from the puck drop. The teams with the true 1C have the luxury of that player likely having both skillsets, teams that don’t have to make a decision more skill or more chance of winning the draw..

tswoboda wrote:

No doubt Boldy has been a difference maker on the PP, but almost all of Ek’s PP goals came B.B. (before boldy). His goals are disgusting, but it was really the only thing working for them until recently.

how many of those fugly goals were just a result of throwing the puck at the net and Ek cleaning up the garbage?

JoeMX1825 wrote:

Again what’s the point of having Ek on the ice over Bonnino

That’s a joke, right? Ekker leads the team in powerplay goals. Did Bonino even score one?

JoeMX1825 wrote:

how many of those fugly goals were just a result of throwing the puck at the net and Ek cleaning up the garbage?

All of them, it’s the only way the PP could score. At some point you have to realize scoring those ugly net front goals is a skill… it’s not just random luck. Parise could do it. Joe Pavelski can do it. Ekker is proving he can do it. Doing it consistently is not just random luck like you always seem to infer. Net front scoring is a skill. Ek can do it, Bonino can not.

Last year Bonino had 3 ppg’s, Ek had zero… and my comparison was from a PP draw perspective, i’d rather have Bonino take the draw, if he wins it we have possession in the zone, if he loses it, he does a line change as everyone skates back to retrieve the puck…

That’s the exact point I’m making. Last year they went with the face-off guy Bonino on the PP so Ek got zero PP time. This year they said eff the face-offs and just put their best net-front guy out there and got rewarded with 10 goals… leading the team.

Putting a schlub in front of the net because they can win draws is a waste of space. Put the best players out there.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

Last year Bonino had 3 ppg’s, Ek had zero… and my comparison was from a PP draw perspective, i’d rather have Bonino take the draw, if he wins it we have possession in the zone, if he loses it, he does a line change as everyone skates back to retrieve the puck…

Why dont we have Giroux, Hertl or Pavelski take the draw instead?

The Carter & hockey hair guy podcast is so good. 60 minutes of Wild related dry humor and one liners.

Here is just one of many articles out there.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/nhl/2017/03/03/illustrated-review-importance-nhl-faceoff

Here is a graph of face offs vs goal differential.

I get situational draws are different but as TSW points out it is such a small change in the overall outcome.
Again not saying it’s something they can’t or shouldn’t work on but it is just not that important.

The article that goes with this graph is more interesting than the graph itself. I will post that too at some point. Google and IDO are not playing nice at the moment.

Been out of touch. What’s up with Dumba now?

fishinfreaks wrote:

Been out of touch. What’s up with Dumba now?

lower body injury (probably knee sprain) he was put on IR last week, so he’ll likely be back in the lineup later this week.

Man the Wild are getting schooled tonight!

Wild=yucky tonight

The defense is beginning to be a big problem and our offense can’t move the puck to save their lives. Just proves this isn’t a cup team. I think we all knew it all along, but they gave us a glimmer of hope for awhile.

Also can someone explain to me the reasoning of benching Addison for Benn when we are playing one of the fastest teams in the league?