.00357% Of Italians Have Died

I did not read the posted link you refer to. However just in the paragraph you chose to quote and post the words and phrases used are no different than the other thousands of printed opinions.
We would expect, we would predict, estimated, predicted, etc. are all there just in the one paragraph. Don’t think they are going too far out on a limb with their “predictions”. Lots of room to back peddle in the event the bodies aren’t stacked like cord wood in the streets. Somebody finds a written opinion that aligns with their own thinking and everyone must read it and believe it or ignore it at your own peril.

As of right now, since this has surfaced in late January which puts us at about the sixty day mark the CDC is reporting 4226 confirmed cases and 75 deaths. Other numbers out there are reporting 6508 confirmed cases with 115 deaths. So going with the latter which is the more dire of the two we are at a fatality rate of 1.8%. Believe what you want and act accordingly.

Ice Cap wrote:

I did not read the posted link you refer to. However just in the paragraph you chose to quote and post the words and phrases used are no different than the other thousands of printed opinions.
We would expect, we would predict, estimated, predicted, etc. are all there just in the one paragraph. Don’t think they are going too far out on a limb with their “predictions”. Lots of room to back peddle in the event the bodies aren’t stacked like cord wood in the streets. Somebody finds a written opinion that aligns with their own thinking and everyone must read it and believe it or ignore it at your own peril.

As of right now, since this has surfaced in late January which puts us at about the sixty day mark the CDC is reporting 4226 confirmed cases and 75 deaths. Other numbers out there are reporting 6508 confirmed cases with 115 deaths. So going with the latter which is the more dire of the two we are at a fatality rate of 1.8%. Believe what you want and act accordingly.

As I said I would not expect this would change someone’s opinion but rather just pointing out that our own government took this, this opinion piece as you like to call it, and decided to shut the country down. Oh, and to help you out with scientific research I posted the Results section, not just a random paragraph to prove a point.

b-curtis wrote:

I’m curious if anybody actually read the Imperial College link that was posted on this thread? Many people think this is a hoax, flu is worse, media-driven, liberal-driven, overblown, people just looking to profit, you are smarter than doctors/scientist/epidemiologists, etc and nothing in the modeling will change your mind. Here is the summary:

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be
infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct
localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

Nonsense, right? BUT sounds like this was reviewed (in conjunction with other studies) by both the US and UK governments and might help explain why both governments have done an about-face on their handling of this whole deal.

With China reporting 10-20 new cases a day, if they’re being honest, this thing will pass far before 80% of their population gets it. (It would take 300,000 YEARS at the rate new cases are being reported)

Oh, and to help you out with scientific research I posted the Results section, not just a random paragraph to prove a point. waytogo

The results section? There are no definitive results at this point. No conclusions can be drawn everything right now is expectations and estimates and number extrapolations which may or may not be right. Opinions. We all have one and who is right or wrong remains to be seen. And quite frankly when this is over the truth is going to remain a very difficult thing to define. In any event good luck to you and stay healthy.

Double edge sword either way for the attitudes after this thing.

Tens of thousands of die the scientists say we told you so.

Few thousand die most everyone gonna say WTF, what else are you guys wrong about? (guy off in the corner coughing *climate*)

That could be, but China also took massive steps that we would never take in this country to stop the spread. And of course the very first statement says it all

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months

Thus the US and UK have gone into a massive shutdown.

By the way that peak month on their charts is June.

I’m not saying it is right or wrong or that it is the bible or anything, just that is sounds like the US and UK governments took it serious.

It is a pretty interesting read if a person is into that. Some interesting charts like the breakdown by age groups.

b-curtis wrote:

That could be, but China also took massive steps that we would never take in this country to stop the spread.

By American standards we have. We aren’t hauling people off the streets and throwing them in houses and boarding them up from the outside or killing scientists or researches that dare try to ring the alarm bell. We aren’t delivering bags of pork for human consumption in the back of garbage trucks and dumping it on the streets but for America we are taking some unprecedented and drastic measures. We haven’t gone draconian yet but you can see it from here.

Ice Cap wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
That could be, but China also took massive steps that we would never take in this country to stop the spread.

By American standards we have. We aren’t hauling people off the streets and throwing them in houses and boarding them up from the outside or killing scientists or researches that dare try to ring the alarm bell. We aren’t delivering bags of pork for human consumption in the back of garbage trucks and dumping it on the streets but for America we are taking some unprecedented and drastic measures. We haven’t gone draconian yet but you can see it from here.

Yes, America has shut down. Studies like this one is part of the reason we went from this is nothing to worry about to oh crap shut everything down.

I just read the lead author who was at the press conference with Boris Johnson now has symptoms.

b-curtis wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ice Cap wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
That could be, but China also took massive steps that we would never take in this country to stop the spread.

By American standards we have. We aren’t hauling people off the streets and throwing them in houses and boarding them up from the outside or killing scientists or researches that dare try to ring the alarm bell. We aren’t delivering bags of pork for human consumption in the back of garbage trucks and dumping it on the streets but for America we are taking some unprecedented and drastic measures. We haven’t gone draconian yet but you can see it from here.

Yes, America has shut down. Studies like this one is part of the reason we went from this is nothing to worry about to oh crap shut everything down.

I just read the lead author who was at the press conference with Boris Johnson now has symptoms.

He’s symptomatic of what exactly? The seasonal flu or the virus? Symptoms are pretty much identical. Has he been tested? If he runs in political circles of high power testing is at his fingertips I’m sure. If he has been tested he should say that as well and readily divulge the test results if available if not then say you will update when you have results.

Just releasing a statement saying you are symptomatic and nothing more leads people to draw conclusions from assumptions. All it does is serve to muddy the already muddy waters and would cause me to be even more skeptical of any of his opinions on the matter and be viewed as agenda driving.

Maybe there’s more and it wasn’t reported or you didn’t post it. If he does have it I wish him a full and speedy recovery.

b-curtis wrote:

I’m not saying it is right or wrong or that it is the bible or anything, just that is sounds like the US and UK governments took it serious.

The us and uk didn’t take it serious until it was too late. You know because we have a president with no leadership skills what so ever and an ego the size of Jupiter.

To date:

There have been 8,800 deaths from the Coronavirus WORLDWIDE SINCE IT STARTED

Ice Cap wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ice Cap wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>b-curtis wrote:</div>
That could be, but China also took massive steps that we would never take in this country to stop the spread.

By American standards we have. We aren’t hauling people off the streets and throwing them in houses and boarding them up from the outside or killing scientists or researches that dare try to ring the alarm bell. We aren’t delivering bags of pork for human consumption in the back of garbage trucks and dumping it on the streets but for America we are taking some unprecedented and drastic measures. We haven’t gone draconian yet but you can see it from here.

Yes, America has shut down. Studies like this one is part of the reason we went from this is nothing to worry about to oh crap shut everything down.

I just read the lead author who was at the press conference with Boris Johnson now has symptoms.

He’s symptomatic of what exactly? The seasonal flu or the virus? Symptoms are pretty much identical. Has he been tested? If he runs in political circles of high power testing is at his fingertips I’m sure. If he has been tested he should say that as well and readily divulge the test results if available if not then say you will update when you have results.

Just releasing a statement saying you are symptomatic and nothing more leads people to draw conclusions from assumptions. All it does is serve to muddy the already muddy waters and would cause me to be even more skeptical of any of his opinions on the matter and be viewed as agenda driving.

Maybe there’s more and it wasn’t reported or you didn’t post it. If he does have it I wish him a full and speedy recovery.

Yes, it is all an agenda driven.

B-man wrote:

With China reporting 10-20 new cases a day, if they’re being honest, this thing will pass far before 80% of their population gets it.

China imposed strict draconian measures that they are able to deploy because of their government/society. We are not going to ever do that here. Please stop using China as a similar model. A European country like France, Spain, or the UK is a much better comparison.

Italy just announced they had their worst day yet with 475 people dieing bring their total to 2978. Chinas total is currently at 3241(if you believe that number….likely higher). If tomorrow is like todays Italy will surpass Chinas reported number. And they aren’t even close to being done….

Look to Italy if you want to see what will likely happen here in America.

munchy wrote:

Italy just announced they had their worst day yet with 475 people dieing bring their total to 2978. Chinas total is currently at 3241(if you believe that number….likely higher). If tomorrow is like todays Italy will surpass Chinas reported number. And they aren’t even close to being done….

Look to Italy if you want to see what will likely happen here in America.

The virus isn’t kind to 70-90 year olds who have smoked their entire lives.

Survival of the fittest is ringing true for the human population.

If you’ve treated your lungs like $hit for 70 years, the Coronavirus, flu, or pneumonia could easily kill you.

I agree, I don’t think Italy is a good comparison either. The UK or Spain or France is the best comparison. Not China or Italy.

B-man wrote:

If you’ve treated your lungs like $hit for 70 years, the Coronavirus, flu, or pneumonia could easily kill you.

Whoa…hold on there cowboy.

Not sure you are aware how many people never picked up a cigarette or treated their lungs like $hit for 70 years and have significant lung issues.

My daughter is one of them, having suffered a bronchial disaster when she was young and now is at high risk for any pulmonary afflictions.

There are many other’s out there too.

Yes, but she’s young.

The average age of Coronavirus deaths in Italy is 79.5 years old.

The life expectancy in Italy is 81.5 years old.

The people that are dying are literally within their last two years of life.

Even then, the majority of old people are recovering. It’s the ones in the worst shape prior to the virus that are dying.

We need to reopen every business and school in this country very soon, or we will have an economic collapse.

Geriatrics with existing conditions are the ones that should self isolate to protect themselves from others.

Right now we are doing the exact opposite and killing our economy.

Bmans ignorance is shining on through. This virus is HIGHLY contagious, lingers in the air and lives for days on surfaces.

It’s been around for 4 months and he’s comparing it to diseases that take years to develop and cannot be caught by standing to close to a virus shedding person.

and now the WHO is saying young kids develop serious conditions.
We don’t know jack shiit about this virus.

phishingruven01 wrote:

This virus is HIGHLY contagious, lingers in the air and lives for days on surfaces.

It’s been around for 4 months and he’s comparing it to diseases that take years to develop and cannot be caught by standing to close to a virus shedding person.

I agree.

We need to isolate and protect old people, not shut down the entire country.

If you’re under 70 years old (the entire workforce) the extreme majority will have just mild symptoms.

When unemployment reaches 10% or more, I think people will realize we went about this wrong……

We should have kept businesses and schools open, the workforce at work, and had older people and younger people in poor health self isolate to prevent getting it.

The economic fallout from our approach is going to be staggering for years and years to come.

The more info that becomes available, it’s not just the old dying.

And not every healthy person makes a 100% recovery. quite a bit of lung damage is being reported.

the quarantine is about flattening the curve so hospitals don’t get over run.
Somehow, because we are America, we won’t experience anything like the countries that got the virus before us and did nothing. MURICA!

B-man wrote:

Yes, but she’s young.

The average age of Coronavirus deaths in Italy is 79.5 years old.

The life expectancy in Italy is 81.5 years old.

The people that are dying are literally within their last two years of life.

Even then, the majority of old people are recovering. It’s the ones in the worst shape prior to the virus that are dying.

We need to reopen every business and school in this country very soon, or we will have an economic collapse.

Geriatrics with existing conditions are the ones that should self isolate to protect themselves from others.

Right now we are doing the exact opposite and killing our economy.

I think the article you took the 79.5 years old from also had this quote:

“The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.

More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease.”

phishingruven01 wrote:

the quarantine is about flattening the curve so hospitals don’t get over run.
Somehow, because we are America, we won’t experience anything like the countries that got the virus before us and did nothing. MURICA!

If older and unhealthy people self quarantined would that not automatically have flattend the curve (of people needing hospitalization)?

What’s the youngest person to have died in the United States? Can anybody tell me?

What’s the average age of people dying in the United States?

uninc4709, I saw that.

.8% of people that have died in Italy didn’t have any apparent health issues.

I’d like to know their age.

If anybody can find the data about them please share it.

If they were in their 70’s, 80’s or 90’s it shouldn’t be too concerning for the general public.

in a one minute search, the youngest I found was 53. Many did not have an age listed.

phishingruven01 wrote:

in a one minute search, the youngest I found was 53. Many did not have an age listed.

Thank you, I’m assuming you’re talking about the question I had about the youngest US death?

Did it say if the person was healthy or if they had any condition(s) prior that contributed?

yep, I was talking about the youngest u.s. death. There were a handful that listed the age as 50’s with no other info
One of the age 53’s did have pre existing conditions. diabetes I think it was.