“In 2014-2015 they lost over 20,000 people to the common flu.”
If you’re going to compare deaths from the Covid virus and the flu, wouldn’t it make sense to wait until the entire 2020 year has been completed?
“In 2014-2015 they lost over 20,000 people to the common flu.”
If you’re going to compare deaths from the Covid virus and the flu, wouldn’t it make sense to wait until the entire 2020 year has been completed?
Of course, I simply used that number as a baseline for comparison.
The death toll will continue to climb in Italy. They are far from being out of the woods yet, the same goes for here. More and more people will continue to get it.
Don’t panic.
Look at the data.
We will get through this.
China who reported could possibly be on the down swing, less than 3300 deaths. Again, country China, severely overpopulated, not as good medical as us imo, less than 3300 deaths total THUS far, possibly on downswing or at least plateud out.
Future predicted from experts which I respect and follow, scary.
4 months of actual virus stats, not so scary.
A friend of mine just had a meeting at her k-12 public school, she said the entire state (MN) is closing school for the remainder of the year…..
I haven’t seen it reported publicly yet though to absolutely confirm.
New York currently has 264 hospitalized of 1374. That is a 19% hospitalization rate. This is looking to overwhelm hospitals in no time.
1374
Confirmed. Who knows how many is actually out there undiagnosed bc clinics and hospitals tell you to stay home.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>munchy wrote:</div>
1374Confirmed. Who knows how many is actually out there undiagnosed bc clinics and hospitals tell you to stay home.
Correct, they are saying to stay home unless conditions get worse. It will help slow the spread and eases the pressure on hospitals. If everyone with a sniffle walked into the ER to be checked the hospital will be overrun.
At this moment it doesn’t matter if you have it or not, it matters if your conditions need treatment or not. It’s all about keeping the hospitals in working condition and slowing the spread.
I’ve been trying to stay out of this but some of you guys are standing on the panic button and it’s only making things worse.
Im with B-man on this. If you don’t like the facts then don’t read them.
I have question.
How do we know CV was not hear well before the testing began? I can’t help but feel that it’s likely been here longer than we think and it just got noticed recently. It’s flu season after all. Symptoms are similar.
I know a lot of people who only go to the doctor if they can’t stop the bleeding and that’s about it.
Ditto. Take the necessary precautions in your own circle and look after those around you that may be vulnerable to the virus.
…
Attached shows the fatality rate by age group of those actually diagnosed.
If you’re under 60 you have almost nothing to worry about (about a 99% chance of survival) (virtually 100% if you’re under 40)
60 to 70 has a 96.5% chance.
70-80 has a 92% chance.
80 and older….It’s not a death sentence, you still have an 85% chance of survival if you get infected.
There is likely a very large amount of cases that are not officially diagnosed/tested, which would raise the real survival rate even more.
Play it safe around the elderly people in your lives.
Our family has temporarily postponed my Grandmother’s Birthday Party. She is still very healthy at this point and has waited 90 years for it. Hopefully we can celebrate it in a few short months and have a 90 and 1/4th Birthday Party.
Screenshot_20200317-125923.png
Play it safe around the elderly people in your lives.
My grandfather’s funeral is on Thursday. I’m concerned because there will be many elderly people there and I do not want to put them at risk. Some have already called saying they can’t go to the funeral due to concerns about exposure. I can’t very well skip my grandfather’s funeral, though, when I’m supposed to do a reading.
moustachesteve, thats a horrible situation. I wish you and your family the best.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>B-man wrote:</div>
Play it safe around the elderly people in your lives.My grandfather’s funeral is on Thursday. I’m concerned because there will be many elderly people there and I do not want to put them at risk. Some have already called saying they can’t go to the funeral due to concerns about exposure. I can’t very well skip my grandfather’s funeral, though, when I’m supposed to do a reading.
Sorry to hear that Steve. Can you have a small family burial and later once everything has calmed down have a larger memorial. I have seen this many times.
I also heard a stat that 30% of all males over the age of 60 in Italy smoke tobacco on a regular basis. So not only are they in the older high risk category, but many of them have damaged lungs already. If you smoke, and you get this, there are going to be serious consequences.
Only 6 confirmed cases in the last day which is a decrease over what was occuring. Even if it’s for one day, at least it didn’t triple.
Screenshot_2020-03-17-15-49-33.png
Screenshot_2020-03-17-16-48-40.png
I think everyone is reacting to what seems to be between the lines in your post B-man.
On one hand, ‘Don’t panic’ is absolutely the right mentality, but there’s a couple different ways to interpret ‘Don’t panic’.
1. Don’t panic, be informed, take as much precaution as possible, social distancing, whatever we can do to slow the rate at which people are getting infected so our healthcare system can keep up. Full blown panic could incite all sorts of bad behavior. Be smart, be safe. These are short term sacrifices everyone is making for the greater good of all the elderly/sick/immune system compromised/etc.
2. Don’t panic, it’s like totally not a big deal, there’s only been a few thousand people who have died, like who cares right. Odds are most of us on here won’t be directly impacted, so just carry on, we’ll get through this. More people die in car accidents every year so why aren’t we banning cars lol am I right?
#1 is the right type of ‘don’t panic’ for this situation given how fast this can spread and how exponential growth works.
#2 is the wrong type of ‘don’t panic’, because it aims to minimize the severity of the situation and put more people in harm’s way, and could actively contribute to more infections.
Remember, if everyone hunkers down and keeps their distance, hopefully in a month or so everyone will be arguing that ‘We shouldn’t have done that, it was overkill, I told you it wasn’t a big deal’. But it’s the ‘hunkering down’ THAT MADE IT NOT A BIG DEAL.
Remember, if everyone hunkers down and keeps their distance, hopefully in a month or so everyone will be arguing that ‘We shouldn’t have done that, it was overkill, I told you it wasn’t a big deal’. But it’s the ‘hunkering down’ THAT MADE IT NOT A BIG DEAL.
Good post Phil.
My prediction is both sides will be patting themselves on the back at the end of this.
The pandemic is still going to happen, it’s just going to be drawn out longer (similar amounts of people hospitalized, but just less at a time and spread out).
Closing schools, businesses, social gatherings, expos and sports isn’t a vaccine.
It isn’t a cure. But it keeps hospital beds available. I’m all for it….but….
I’d really like to see the science and reasoning behind closing schools.
Please follow my logic here and let me know if you agree or disagree.
It’s not going to save any children’s lives, because children aren’t dying from the virus.
HOWEVER…..When a school is closed, who is watching the kids???
As many parents as possible will continue to work if they have someone to watch the kids.
You know who is great at watching kids?? And who is going to be taking a large part of the burden?? GRANDPARENTS
It also happens to be that Grandparents are the oldest part of our population, and BY FAR THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO DYING
Monday morning Mom and Dad drop off the kids at Grandma and Grandpa’s.
Mom and Dad go to work. They are exposed and may catch a mild case.
Mom and Dad pick up the kids Monday night. The kids are exposed and may catch a mild case.
Guess where the exposed kids go on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday….back and forth to Grandma and Grandpa’s
Had they remained in school, they may have only interacted with their grandparents once that month. Now many of them will be with them 20+ days with back and forth exposure.
Any given school could have simply offered older employees a paid leave and went on with business as usual until the smoke clears. But we’re too far past that now.
Now thousands and thousands of grandparents are being put at risk instead with their own little Petri dishes delivered every morning. They all aren’t going to die, but they are being far more exposed than they would have if schools remained open.
For those comparing this to the Flu
89974481_913150175810362_4386387684940054528_o.jpg
We’ve all seen info everywhere about how this compares to the flu either positively or negatively. Only X% of people get this level of sick or that there is X many people that have died. And that is how this thread started. I got to thinking. In 2018 there was a bit of a kerfuffle here over whether people should get a flu shot or not. 4 pages of debate about is it was a good idea or a waste of time. I wonder if those same people who said they wouldn’t get a flu shot in the past, would be in line to get a CV shot if available.
The flu has been touted as being more deadly and contracted by more people than CV. But we still argue about getting a flu shot. Now the everyone is talking about flattening the curve to not overwhelm the medical facilities. The difference is CV has a fast and steep curve where a lot of people get sick fast. Some very sick. Stay inside we gotta flatten the curve to reduce cases. Gotta flatten the curve for… Anyone else wonder what would happen if we didn’t flatten the curve with flu every year? Because we do actually flatten it. 175 million vaccines distributed this year. Who all has a scar on their arm from the small pox vaccine? I do. We managed to flatten the curve to zero on that one. I remember hearing stories of kids not being allowed outside because parents were afraid they’d get polio. That’s not a worry anymore because there is a vaccine that…flattens the curve. Until there is a vaccine or meds, we all need to do our part to…
PS get a flu shot each year.
Only 6 confirmed cases in the last day which is a decrease over what was occuring. Even if it’s for one day, at least it didn’t triple.
Those 6 were from Mayo Clinic. They tested almost 300 staff yesterday and found 6 cases.
I would think keeping them out of school keeps the adults safer because every kid in school would end up exposing it to each other. In a week every parent and teacher is also exposed . The children are the carrier monkeys that spread it to the adults, in a school setting. Also family’s such as mine with middle and high school age children do not require child care so by keeping them home and unexposed they do not have a chance to expose it to anyone else.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>beardly wrote:</div>
Only 6 confirmed cases in the last day which is a decrease over what was occuring. Even if it’s for one day, at least it didn’t triple.Those 6 were from Mayo Clinic. They tested almost 300 staff yesterday and found 6 cases.
Interesting. Any source? Other than the county I haven’t been able to see any specific locations.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>munchy wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>beardly wrote:</div>
Only 6 confirmed cases in the last day which is a decrease over what was occuring. Even if it’s for one day, at least it didn’t triple.Those 6 were from Mayo Clinic. They tested almost 300 staff yesterday and found 6 cases.
Interesting. Any source? Other than the county I haven’t been able to see any specific locations.
An inside source with knowledge of what’s happening.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>chamberschamps wrote:</div>
In 2001 we lost 0.00091% of our population to a terrorist attack on the world trade center. As you say, maybe we should chill the fu@k out about that too.How you can even compare the two is beyond me. That is of a completely different context.
It’s far more fair to compare the Coronavirus to heart disease.
Last year 647,000 Americans died from it. An obese and unhealthy nation is a far worse pandemic than this strange bug sweeping the world.
this is an extremely bad comparison. Heart disease develops over YEARS. covid 19 is only 4 months old.
Heart disease is not highly contagious
covid 19 is highly contagious.
actually, that was a really dumb comparison and sounds like something that Donald Trump would say. Kind of like, we only have 15 cases and next week we will have none.
China who reported could possibly be on the down swing, less than 3300 deaths. Again, country China, severely overpopulated, not as good medical as us imo, less than 3300 deaths total THUS far, possibly on downswing or at least plateud out.
Future predicted from experts which I respect and follow, scary.
4 months of actual virus stats, not so scary.
do you have any idea how drastic the measures were that china used to quell their outbreak?
The U.S. is so far behind, it’s not funny.
PS get a flu shot each year
Nope, I most likely still won’t getFlu shot. Sorry for all of those who will be disappointed hearing this.
If there is a COVID vaccine I may get that.
Along with the flu shot discussion we no longer have to worry about if we can run a stop sign arm on a school bus.
Pick a side, who’s right who’s wrong? This is not a time to be so Ego Manic.
Calm down,take a deep breath,and quit being so judgmental
We are in this battle together we help each other through difficult times.
Were Americans dammit-we got this 
I’m curious if anybody actually read the Imperial College link that was posted on this thread? Many people think this is a hoax, flu is worse, media-driven, liberal-driven, overblown, people just looking to profit, you are smarter than doctors/scientist/epidemiologists, etc and nothing in the modeling will change your mind. Here is the summary:
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be
infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct
localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
Nonsense, right? BUT sounds like this was reviewed (in conjunction with other studies) by both the US and UK governments and might help explain why both governments have done an about-face on their handling of this whole deal.
Classic Dutch! But also not quite true… Little Falls school district has volunteers packing school lunches and the school buses are delivering them. Not sure if the stop sign is deployed as the starving kids run out to get their meal?
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
