.00357% Of Italians Have Died

Few Bothans died to bring us this information…

Joe, you are comparing apples and oranges. We are dealing with something completely unknown that we don’t have a track record with. Details change each day.

Like I mentioned in another post, we are all trying to rationalize this. I get that and have done it. However, we can’t rationalize it at this point.

All we can do is exercise caution until we have more facts and data. Just like you slow down when the roads are icy, be a little cautious and hope all of this is an overreaction.

Matt Moen wrote:

Joe, you are comparing apples and oranges.

I guess I feel like its apples for apples. In both scenarios we can prevent death at a cost. As far as not knowing? We have China and Italy to see exactly whats coming. I thought it was a good comparison but I just had Donald J agree with me so I must be off base! My apologies.

I just didn’t want to see you all rip B-Man down over his opinion.

Joe Scegura wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Matt Moen wrote:</div>
Joe, you are comparing apples and oranges.

I guess I feel like its apples for apples. In both scenarios we can prevent death at a cost. As far as not knowing? We have China and Italy to see exactly whats coming. I thought it was a good comparison but I just had Donald J agree with me so I must be off base! My apologies.

I just didn’t want to see you all rip B-Man down over his opinion.

I’m with you….I mentioned above I don’t think b-man was being malicious.

Crazy times for sure.

I think we can all agree we hope everyone and their families are safe.

Joe Scegura wrote:

I just didn’t want to see you all rip B-Man down over his opinion.

Yes Joe, it can be a fine line between attacking the argument or opinion and attacking the person.

It was not my intent to attack the person, but when he said “belletaine’s daughter will be fine” really made me wince.

That’s a risky opinion now what is truly a delicate situation for a member here. His child’s life goes beyond anyone’s hurt feelings here.

I do understand we’re in an unprecedented period in our lifetimes, and our reactions and coping mechanisms are not always rational.

Just observe the greater madness and people’s insecurities manifest into a disease worse than the disease.

From what I have read from him over the last few years, I think Bman is a good dude and a great parent.

I think what we are all losing sight of by expressing the opinions that we have here is that unlike terrorism, heart disease, icy road conditions etc, with this situation we have a chance as individuals to save lives.
What you do today, this very minute can have an exponential effect one way or another.

I don’t care if it’s 50 people or 500,000. Let’s do whatever it takes to save a life.

And yes, this is coming from a man who filed for unemployment today due to my relative industry being closed until further notice by the government.

I respect B-Man, but I can’t help remember that 4 days ago he was touting the words from the guy on the Joe Rogan podcast, claiming there would be 480,000 deaths in the US, and talking about burying our heads in the sand. Now he starts this threat…:???:

blank wrote:

I respect B-Man, but I can’t help remember that 4 days ago he was touting the words from the guy on the Joe Rogan podcast, claiming there would be 480,000 deaths in the US, and talking about burying our heads in the sand. Now he starts this threat…:???:

I’ll own up to that.

I got suckered into the media hype like the rest of the world. The early estimates and projected growth rates were staggering.

The point of this thread is it isn’t as bad as it seems, even in hard hit Italy where the news makes it seem like everyone has it.

What really freaked me out was a case popped up 15 miles away from my house one day, and 10 miles away the next. A little paranoid calculating put it on my front door a few days later (thankfully it hasn’t yet).

But now that there are more numbers out, it appears that this virus can be mitigated (if China isn’t full of $hit anyway….they are now reporting only 20 or so new cases a day). The survival rate outside of Italy is also promising.

I have faith in our medical facilities here. My wife is a nurse and has been assigned containment and triage for her floor at her clinic. If I can’t trust her, I can’t trust anyone. But I do, they’re professionals and they live it.

There are more mild cases here than we think, and hopefully testing becomes easier and more prevalent as the days go on to prevent spread to the elderly community.

I believe we will have an outstanding survival rate compared to other countries. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that Belletaine’s daughter will be healthy in the coming weeks. If she needs help and support she will get it.

And to be clear guys, I’m not saying cancelling huge events and large gatherings is a terrible idea. Not at all. It has saved many lives already.

As I said in the other threads, I hope the staggering projected numbers from early on are wrong and we can all put this behind us like countless other viruses.

It’s just starting here and it will get worse, but the media has put a five foot wide panic button in every home across the country. People are freaking out, the economy is collapsing, people are losing their jobs.

I just found out that our Continental Breakfast has been cancelled at our hotel until further notice……you can’t make that up.

Caution and cleanliness is prudent right now, but where does it end??? Where is the line? Have we even come close to crossing it?

If this panic continues, people will be assulting each other or even murdering each other for the last can of beans or roll of toilet paper. All for something that hasn’t proven worse than the annual influenza season.

——-

We can all get through this with calm and collected minds.

Wash your hands.

Avoid crowds.

Stay home if you’re sick.

If someone with a immune system that is already stressed getting the flu or corona virus will be equally deadly. If the virus was more deadly to all ages and healths I would be more concerned. This virus isn’t killing completely healthy people left and right. Sure we’ll have a few odd healthy people parish but if most of us get corona we can survive at home with rest and fluids. All of this fear also makes people believe they need to go to the hospital or they will die. This is complete overreaction and actually make some our vulnerable populations more susceptible.

Well I am not a big one on judging opinions but things happen in the world that raises controversy all the time when it comes to life or death. It’s a perspective thing and hind site advice when we don’t need it. If Hillary would be president at this moment, the media and her party would be celebrating that they there is only 4100 cases and only 81 deaths so far and they r winning. Perspective.

These are uncharted waters, and that breeds early speculation and overreaction; it’s natural and expected. Sure, influenza spreads broadly and does kill many people worldwide. But keep in mind there are 8 variants of the flu in constant circulation, and the statistics you see are the combination of these 8 variants. It is (mostly) seasonal to us, but along the equatorial tropic the flu is a year round struggle, and human immune systems have dealt with it, so even with a new strain we still have some immunity to blunt its severity. Our immune systems are naive to COVID-19. COVID is (so far) largely a single variant and when it arose, flu did not magically go away. Many healthcare facilitates will be treating both patients with flu and COVID, not to mention everyone else with heart disease, renal failure, obesity, and cancer etc. This the biggest worry.

The rate of spread in WESTERN countries will and so far has been much different than China and even South Korea simply because those countries are able to enact insanely restrictive measures with the stroke of a pen. China literally put >1 billion people on ice in a matter of days and it worked (for now, eventually those people need to go back to work). We are a Western country that is trying to replicate this strategy the best we can. Europe (specifically Italy and Spain) did not close things down soon and they are in big trouble. Their healthcare systems are teetering on collapse

Right now Covid-19 (CV) transmission is R2.2 versus R1.3 for flu (all the flus combined remember), which means data says CV is more infectious than flu. The hospitalization rate is also much higher (~10-20%), and we don’t have the infrastructure in our health system to deal with that. Also, for what it’s worth, the case fatality rate for CV is much higher than that of flu (0.1%). Based on available data for CV (182,406 infected and 7150 dead worldwide; https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) CV is running a 3.92% case fatality rate, and as mentioned previously puts a much higher % of people in the hospital.

The precautions and restrictions in place certainly seem draconian, but if we don’t do anything and end up like Italy we are going to be in bad shape. None of this is ideal but it’s our best shot all things considered.

It’s a choice.
You can believe the reports coming out of China.
You can believe the reports being reported here.

It’s nothing & nearly over.
It could be a major problem.

If it’s nothing and your job has been shut down go volunteer at a screening place.

This will pass most likely sooner than later. And when it does we will never know if the drastic measures taken now were actually necessary or not. I’m retired. The shut downs and closures really do not matter to me. I’m not really affected by it. Have enough food to last for months and the liquor cabinet is stocked. But these shutdowns are going to effect a lot of small business owners in a very impactful way for a long time down the road. If it goes on long enough they may lose their business. That’s no small thing.

Many of these people are young and not in any of the risk categories. If given the choice many would tell you they would rather suffer from flu like symptoms for a week then have their business shut down if even temporary. There are going to be a lot of unintended consequences that we won’t realize for months or years down the road. I hope it’s worth but we will never know for sure.

One lesson that must be learned from this is China needs to be treated as a financial risk and even larger manufacturing risk and the enemy that it has been and remains to be. We still need to deal with them of course but deal with them in a much different way. We need to cut the amount of business we do with them to a bare minimum. We need to get our manufacturing especially critical goods back to this country or at least to countries that are not to be known enemies to our own. Communist China is a enemy of the US and always has been. As indicated by their threat to with hold pharmaceuticals to the US

I think or at least hope China is going to be treated much differently on the world stage after this has passed. Some of the most hardest hit countries were dealing closely with China. Italy, South Korea, and of course Iraq and Iran and I suspect their dealings were of a more nefarious nature than most other countries. All these countries are going to look at China in a different way going forward.

China could be the greatest ally the US and the rest of the world could want. But until it stops being a extreme communist country it will never happen. A movement was beginning to take hold in China by the young people demanding a democratic government and ousting the hard line communist. Hopefully given time they will succeed and China can become the ally the world wants and needs.

B-man wrote:

Italy has been hit the hardest out of any country in the world (highest percentage of a population)

They’ve lost 2,150 people to the Coronavirus so far.

In 2014-2015 they lost over 20,000 people to the common flu.

To date, less than half a percent of their population has been infected (about 1 in 200 people)

Their death rate is the highest we’ve seen because of their aging population. About 7.5% of the .05% have died. (.00357%)

Their infected density rate is currently 32 times higher than the US.

The news would have us believe that everyone in the world is going to die from this virus. But that’s just not the case.

Turn off the TV and drop a line in the water.

THE SUN IS GOING TO RISE TOMORROW

#CHILLTHE’F’OUT

Dumbest headline ever. Way to throw out stupid facts. This is WORSE fake news then what most media is reporting. How about sharing death rates of those INFECTED!?!?!?!? How about the elderly mortality rate?

32 x higher? Well, maybe, just maybe, we are actually doing things right by halting large crowds?

Maybe you should get more then just a high school diploma if you are going to invest 6 minutes into researching this subject…wow

Soon enough we will all know the outcome and who twisted the truth. Patience.

ClownColor wrote:

How about sharing death rates of those INFECTED!?!?!?!?

This # is the great question mark in this scenario, as we really have no idea how many people are infected, and we only know the mortality rate of people who tested positive. Additionally the data we do have will be skewed in the coming days as more tests become available coupled with the virus’ continued growth in the US. Perhaps instead of personally attacking BMan, present the numbers you feel most compelling for this being the proper reaction, or why the #’s he presented are not accurate. I realize everyone is stressed out by this situation, but we need to be able to discuss the actual #’s like adults.

Joe Scegura wrote:

Before everyone continues to take B-Man down you should reread his post again… he’s not being malicious. He posted facts. Yes people will die, that doesn’t mean he wants it to happen or doesn’t care. He’s just stating people die all the time.

We are closing everything and changing the world to save some lives. That’s awesome. On the other hand, how about driving when there’s a lil snow on the roads. If we followed this current rational we all would stay home everytime a flake falls because we could hurt someone. There WILL be more people hurt/killed driving in poor conditions than this virus.

It sounds morbid but there is always going to be people dying. As a society we weigh out the cost vs. reward daily.

Take speed limits for example? People will die. If we cut the speed limit in half the number of deaths would decrease… simple math. Cause and effect.

All you stating “ya but what if its your loved one that dies from the CV. Then you’ll care!”

How about this, will you drive half speed to possibly save someone’s life? Or is that too inconvenient?

I think B-Man was just stating the current cost vs reward numbers don’t match previous decisions.

What? Speed limits? Really? …so in this stupid analogy, I’m only going to kill someone if I hit someone. If you keep everyone away from the streets (like social distancing) I’m not going to kill anyone! Mission accomplished.

Seriously folks, this is a big concern but can be controlled. Slow the curve. don’t be an idiot. Be clean. Don’t buy out everything you can, unless you want rioting. Buy a few weeks of groceries and then go shopping again.

BigWerm wrote:

Perhaps instead of personally attacking BMan, present the numbers you feel most compelling for this being the proper reaction, or why the #’s he presented are not accurate.

I’ll personally attach any person who decides to put out stupid headlines and untrue facts…he started the thread!

I’m not going to post facts cause they change daily. I’m sure those facts will change while I type this.

I explained why his facts are false.

Anyone else so confused by all this? Bmans numbers are facts, there are only so many people dying, just like any other normal flu season. But its scary bc of the unknown. I go back and forth hourly. 8500 deaths so far on a global scale is far from a global catastrophe, you could quadruple that number and still be way behind annual crap that happens.

Here’s some more numbers tho that are scary, off mnhospitals.org

Total hospital beds in MN, so lets pretend patients can be transported around the state to get to a bed, there are a total of 17000 beds in MN in 2017. Let’s pretend they are all conservatively 25% full, that leaves room for less than 13000 covid patients in the entire state who need care. If this thing gets out of hand cabelas will have a field day selling Alaskan tents to these hospitals.

ClownColor wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
Perhaps instead of personally attacking BMan, present the numbers you feel most compelling for this being the proper reaction, or why the #’s he presented are not accurate.

I’ll personally attach any person who decides to put out stupid headlines and untrue facts…he started the thread!

I’m not going to post facts cause they change daily. I’m sure those facts will change while I type this.

I explained why his facts are false.

You should go back and read his last 3 lines, those are the most important

ClownColor wrote:

I’ll personally attach any person who decides to put out stupid headlines and untrue facts…he started the thread!

I’m not going to post facts cause they change daily. I’m sure those facts will change while I type this.

I explained why his facts are false.

Attach away bud, but you just come off like an unstable jackwagon when your “explanation” is just some different somewhat related questions.

FWIW B Man the reason I think you are missing the point here, is Italy’s # of infected went from 12,462 last Tuesday to 27,980 this Sunday. That is a 2.45x multiplier in less than a week, so even if the mortality rate stays the same, the # of infected will continue to grow at a similar or faster rate if appropriate responses are not taken and embraced by the public. Here’s a good example of how exponential growth works.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/compounding-is-the-problem-crash-course-chapter-4/

For those who asked. The fatality rate peaked (so far) at 9.9% on March 4th 2020. It declined steadily after that to today’s most current rate at 2% U.S. numbers obviously. Currently 93 deaths and 4745 cases.

#1 reason and this is the honest to god truth for me, with no judgement at all towards people who live their lives however they want, but America is so freaking full of unhealthy fat people, with pre existing conditions up the ying yang our numbers could be much different than those countries where people actually walk around everyday!

Here are some testing numbers:

Population/ test
US: 327 m / 25,000
Italy: 60 m / 134,000
South Korea: 52 m / 274,000

I’m not a statistician but that sure seems like a small sample size and I would bet there is a crap ton more people walking around here that have it than being reported.

trajectory

ClownColor wrote:

What? Speed limits? Really? …so in this stupid analogy, I’m only going to kill someone if I hit someone. If you keep everyone away from the streets (like social distancing) I’m not going to kill anyone! Mission accomplished.

Slow down here…

There are other people on the road and if we change our everyday life less people will die. The analogy is pretty spot on in my eyes. If you disagree that is 100% ok. It’s just my opinion and you have yours. Don’t come attack people because your scared.

Yes people will die. And if we stopped doing everything, guess what less people will die! But there 100’s of scenarios where changed actions by millions will save 1000’s of lives… but we don’t do anything about it. I’m not sure what makes this so much different.

b-curtis wrote:

Population/ test
US: 327 m / 25,000
Italy: 60 m / 134,000
South Korea: 52 m / 274,000

I just got off the phone with a medical professional and he said testing is pointless. Plain and simple if you’re sick stay home. If you have CV or the regular flu your actions should be 100% the same… STAY HOME! He said testing only puts more people at risk.

Evaluating the severity of this public health emergency on numbers “To date..” is completely idiotic. Period.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Bob you should lock yourself in your basement and re-read all of the FACTS I posted.

I posted Italy’s death rate, but you’re so worked up you apparently missed it.

Yes, the numbers are going to be constantly changing……I made that very clear, or so I thought.

We’re not all going to die from this.

Turn off the TV and go fishing. Avoid large crowds, wash your hands, and stay home if you’re sick. Control the things you can control.

And most importantly, chill out. Panic is clearly getting the best of you.

Worrying is like a rocking chair, both give you something to do, but neither get you anywhere.

I’ve been trying to stay out of this but some of you guys are standing on the panic button and it’s only making things worse.
Im with B-man on this. If you don’t like the facts then don’t read them.
I have question.
How do we know CV was not hear well before the testing began? I can’t help but feel that it’s likely been here longer than we think and it just got noticed recently. It’s flu season after all. Symptoms are similar.
I know a lot of people who only go to the doctor if they can’t stop the bleeding and that’s about it.

Joe Scegura wrote:

I just got off the phone with a medical professional and he said testing is pointless. Plain and simple if you’re sick stay home. If you have CV or the regular flu your actions should be 100% the same… STAY HOME! He said testing only puts more people at risk.

I read basically the same in this mornings paper. Whether you test positive for it or not, they don’t have a cure or treatment for it. So basically stay home and let it run it’s course and not risk increasing the spread by coming in.

Which did make sense to me, but then I wondered if they’re discouraging testing…how will they get an idea how and where it’s spreading? And what the rate of increase might be?

Maybe they’ll use something like the DNR’s hooking mortality formula applied to Mille Lacs walleyes.